Stanley Cup Playoffs betting: Hurricanes-Capitals series preview
Making sense of why Carolina is favored over Washington
If you were honestly characterizing Carolina in the “Aho Era” - a term not used, well, maybe ever - you’d have to admit that they have been wildly overrated in the literal sense. After all, they have not won so much as a Conference Final game in the time their star centre has been asked to rally the team in Raleigh each spring. Their rating in the betting market is always high because it loves the Hurricanes due to their annual perch at, or near, the top of the advanced metrics charts.
This year is no different. Despite finishing with 12 fewer points than Washington, the market’s considered Carolina 20-25% better than an average team, while the Capitals topped out at +15%.
This market rating disparity wasn’t obvious when both teams were favored against average teams in Round 1, but it’s far more noticeable now, what with the Canes lined as a significant favorite over the Caps, despite the home-ice advantage lying with Washington.
How do we make sense of that in order to make a bet on the series?
Check for an adjustment for recent (first round) play
Define the difference between the team’s skaters
Evaluate the goaltending matchup
Compare our fair odds (both side’s estimated win probability) to the odds offered
First round autopsy
How each team made it through their first series (stats via naturalstattrick.com)
Canadiens-Capitals:
Unexpectedly, the Capitals out-goaltended the Canadiens and, as expected, were better at even-strength. That’s a good recipe for a short series, even if the Habs had a reasonable chance to win Game 1 and 4. Montreal converting just 6.8% even-strength high-danger chances (ES HDC) was their death-knell.
Devils-Hurricanes:
Like Montreal, New Jersey stepped up in Game 3 - their best effort coming in their first game at home, but the Hurricanes dominated the other four. Carolina didn’t do much better than the Canadiens, with a 7.9% ES HDC conversion rate - well below league average (11.8%). The sheer volume of possession (partly measured by xG) was enough to overwhelm the Devils in a comparable way to the Capitals win over the Canadiens.
Both teams finished their series about 10% better than their opponent on a game-to-game basis before accounting for goaltending effect. That’s in keeping with their regular season play, and doesn’t trigger an adjustment in their team rating ahead of Round 2.
THE WINDOW’s Skaters Rating (Regular season)
ES HDC%: Even-strength high-danger chance share
ES XG%: Even strength expected goal share
SNIPES%: (ES HD Goals + Power-play goals) / (ES HDG + ES PP Opp)
RATING: Above (+) or Below (-) league average
NEUTRAL WIN%: Probability of winning on neutral ice
IWP: Implied win probability (from a moneyline)Looking at the regular-season metrics, the Capitals’ ability to convert their ‘high-danger chances plus power plays’ (SNIPES) at a rate second in the league (16.6%), combined with Carolina being a below-average team in the same category, narrows a gap that would otherwise exist between one of the perennially top-rated teams in the league and Washington. The Capitals’ season came as a surprise, so they never crept into the top echelon of NHL teams, according to the betting market.
Round 1’s results were almost scary in their congruity with the regular season numbers, as the Capitals kept up their SNIPES%, clicking at 16.1%, while the Hurricanes were right in line with theirs at 13.4% against the Devils.
Insert scary ghost “wooooooo” noises here.
Goaltender Effects
While season-long stats are cool, every April we’re reminded that, when the puck drops on the Stanley Cup Playoffs, the calculus changes. So, we’ll take into account how the presumed starting goaltenders are playing so far this postseason, estimating how much win probability will shift based on postseason form. As we did heading into the playoffs, we adjust that estimated win probability 25% towards the mean for the win probability differential.
It looked like the Canadiens were going to have the advantage in net in Round 1, with Logan Thompson unavailable late in the regular season after having struggled post-break. Sam Montembeault held up his end of the bargain through three games (before getting hurt), with 0.74 GSAx/60 (Goals Saved Above Expected per 60 minutes), but Thompson stepped up, saving the Capitals almost a goal per game relative to an average goaltender.
In the first three games of Devils-Hurricanes, Andersen (1.83 GSAx/60) found himself in a goalie duel with Jacob Markstrom. However, in Game 4, Andersen was hurt in a collision and missed Game 5. In his steed, Pyotr Kochetkov underwhelmed, with a -1.17 GSAx in just under five periods of play.
While it seems like Andersen should be good to go for Game 1, the oft-injured 35-year-old’s latest injury does complicate things. On a positive note, while Kochetkov wasn’t good in the short sample size against the Devils, he was above-average this season, with a 0.22 GSAx/60.
How to bet Hurricanes-Capitals
Both Andersen and Thompson played well above expectation in the first round, which shows both are capable of high-end play. That high-variance can be scary, but all we have to go off of are the numbers, so Carolina gets a boost for the goaltending matchup. It helps that that differential from Round 1 isn’t roughly the same as the differential from the stretch portion of the regular season.
How will we know this is a fair assessment? Carolina goalies will need to save themselves 0.7 more goals per game than Washington’s.
The other option is for Carolina to make up some ground in SNIPES%. Our win probability calculation of 63.4% is built despite the 3% gap between the Canes (~13.5%) and Caps (~16.5%) - something that has some room for tightening if both teams drift towards the mean (14.2%).
By rule, we’re looking for any edge on the favorite in series betting, and 63.4% odds equate to -173 odds. The best available price on Carolina is -155, or 60.8% implied win probability. That’s a 2.6% edge on the Hurricanes - more than enough to pull the trigger on a team we already have bought futures on to win the Stanley Cup (via THE WINDOW Podcast, 1:04:00).
Series bet: Hurricanes to win series (-155 at DraftKings)
Game moneyline target prices:
Game 1/2/5/7: Carolina (-107 or better)
Game 3/4/6: Carolina (-149 or better)
Most points: Sebastian Aho (+475)
This series features a pair of triggermen - one young and one old. Andrei Svechnikov went from 20 regular-season goals to five in five games against the Devils (and a team-high 22 shots on goal), so, as much as he’s interesting at 11-1, he’d have to keep up with the goal-scoring GOAT, Alexander Ovechkin.
Ovechkin’s anywhere from +110 at Bet365 to +265 at DraftKings, which shows the series prop market can be messy from ‘book to ‘book.
Our Caps dark-horse in Round 1, Dylan Strome, kept passing. Meanwhile, there’s still reason to like Jackson Blake to find his scoring touch in a big way at 30-1 (Bet365), given he’s still playing with Svechnikov and Sebastian Aho on the top line, and on the first power-play unit.
There are no safe bets, but it’s worth backing Aho and his ability to find the shooters he’s playing with, combined with an underrated scoring touch. A price of +475 suggests he’s going to lead another series in points just 17.4% of the time, but we think there’s a better chance than that, as we’re looking to buy Aho, who’s still just 27 years old, entering his prime, and hopefully on his way to Conn Smythe-candidacy.
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