Stanley Cup Playoffs betting: Oilers-Kings series preview
Has L.A. finally found a goalie worthy of the crown against Edmonton’s NHL royalty?
And here I go again on my own
Going down the only road I've ever known
Like a drifter I was born to walk alone
And I've made up my mind
I ain't wasting no more time
- Whitesnake (1982)
It’s unlikely that Whitesnake was preparing for a fourth straight Kings-Oilers first round series in the Stanley Cup Playoffs forty years ago, but it’s the song (with the scene from Old School) that popped into my head as I started digging into this re-re-re-rematch.
Specifically, the best Kings’ team in years doesn’t want to waste any more time, hoping that a fifth different starting goaltender might be the answer to Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and company.
From a results perspective, it’s gotten progressively worse in the past three attempts:
Unsurprisingly, the worse the goaltending, the quicker the Kings were vanquished by the Oilers these past three postseasons. This year, it’s former Stanley Cup champion, Darcy Kuemper, with a turn to try to be the Hollywood hero between the pipes.
Meanwhile, these series were the first step of three Stanley Cup contender-level Oilers’ seasons where they played in 16, 12, and 25 playoff games, accruing mileage on their stars that likely has contributed to why McDavid and Draisaitl have been in and out of the lineup down the stretch.
The expectation is that McDavid (already back and doling out seven assists in two games) and Draisaitl will be good to go for Game 1, but staunch defender Mattias Ekholm has already been ruled out for the entire series. On the plus side, the Oilers have been waiting to deploy Evander Kane, who hasn’t played all season after getting hurt in the Stanley Cup Final, and has 12 goals in the 18 playoff games against the Kings.
Los Angeles played the first half of the season without Drew Doughty, but the veteran defenseman came back just in time to help Canada win the 4 Nations Face-off, but the Kings were already playing well in their first 48 games of this season (55.2% xG% at even-strength), while flying under the radar league-wide.
The inside scoop
Whether you can find them on Substack, or elsewhere, here’s a take from a member of the media that’s followed each team closely, about what will make-or-break their chances in the playoffs.
The Oilers:
“Edmonton’s blueline is facing the biggest problem it’s faced in a few seasons with Mattias Ekholm out for the entire series at minimum, and it may be up to Kulak to fix it. While it’s entirely possible that the Oilers run a top four of Jake Walman-Evan Bouchard and Darnell Nurse-Ty Emberson, Kulak may be the best fit from a defensive perspective to replace Ekholm’s minutes as adequately as possible.”
- Scott Maxwell, Daily Faceoff
The Kings:
“Throw out full season stats when assessing the Kings’ chances this time around versus the Oilers. L.A. was a very different team down the stretch with Andrei Kuzmenko added, closing the season 17-5. The Kings now have two scoring lines that will give Edmonton’s bottom-4 defensemen matchup problems. Plus, they have a legitimate shutdown line centered by Phillip Danault. It’s the best version of the Kings that the Oilers will face.”
- Dennis Bernstein, TheFourthPeriod
THE WINDOW’s Skaters Rating
ES HDC%: Even-strength high-danger chance share
ES xG%: Even strength expected goal share
SNIPES%: (ES HD Goals + Power-play goals) / (ES HDG + ES PP Opp)
RATING: Above (+) or Below (-) league average
NEUTRAL WIN%: Probability of winning on neutral ice
IWP: Implied win probability (from a moneyline)As a team, the Oilers have an above-average SNIPES %, but given they have McDavid and Draisaitl, you might expect it to be higher. Edmonton was just 23.9% on the power play this season, a drop from 26.9% last season that could be attributed to the time missed by each star, and a Zach Hyman not having the same tap-ins. The Oilers finished last year’s playoffs above 29% on the PP - a number that was lowered quite a bit by going 3-for-24 in the Stanley Cup Final.
It could be expected that the Oilers do a better job converting their best scoring chances in the playoffs than their regular season numbers indicate.
In the first two of the three matchups between these two, the Kings entered the playoffs having finished in the back-half of league on the penalty kill. Last year, they were second on PK, but allowed nine goals on 20 Oilers power plays. This year, the Kings were third on the kill. Maybe Edmonton runs wild again, but the expectation should be for at least four fewer total goals allowed (at least through five games). Either that, or Edmonton’s PP is just so good that 5/20 isn’t a conservative-enough estimate.
As for Los Angeles, their ability to create offense at even strength this season - behind only the Hurricanes in xG% and Oilers in HDC%, is undermined by an inability to convert to league-average at both even strength and on the power play.
Goaltender Effects
We take into account of how the presumed starting goaltenders are playing coming into the postseason, estimating how much win probability will shift based on recent form. To be safe, we adjust that estimated win probability 25% towards the mean.
We opened the preview discussing the Kings’ rotating cast of goaltenders, because it’s tough to know what to expect in the crease for either side. All four Kings’ goalies in our first chart above came into the playoffs after good regular seasons, averaging 0.4 GSAx/60. Kuemper’s season-long GSAx/60 was 0.59, so a strong finish (0.68) isn’t some fluky hot-streak.
Then there’s the curious case of Stuart Skinner, who came into last year’s playoffs with a 0.23 GSAx/60 for the season, and then nearly matched it with a 0.18 GSAx/60 in the playoffs. But that doesn’t tell the whole story.
Skinner started the playoffs -4.08 GSAx in nine games, and was benched for journeyman Calvin Pickard in the second round against the Canucks. After getting the net back, Skinner was mostly outstanding the rest of the way, averaging 0.65 GSAx/60.
That didn’t exactly propel Skinner into a big year, as he’s been a little better than league-average (+0.11) for the whole season, and below-average down the stretch. Luckily for him, Pickard has done nothing to threaten the starting job during the time Skinner’s missed lately.
With due respect given to Skinner’s effort against the Stars and Panthers last year, an 8% shift in win probability because of the goaltenders feels right.
How to bet Oilers-Kings
From last summer, when the Stanley Cup Finalist Oilers were lined at 108.5 regular season points for this season, to now, Edmonton has been assigned a market rating of no worse than 20% above an average NHL team. They didn’t get anywhere near that point total in 2024-‘25, and a 58% win rate this season means that blindly betting on the Oilers was a losing strategy.
On the flip side, the Kings (RSP: 96.5) blew past expectations with over 100 points. L.A.’s scoring stars, Kevin Fiala and Adrian Kempe still aren’t household names, especially compared to McDavid and Draisaitl, but the team’s excellent even-strength numbers and advantage in net earned the Kings home-ice advantage - something they didn’t have in the last three postseason meetings with the Oilers. All of that combines to support the idea that the Kings are actually slightly more likely to win this series.
That’s not the perception though, because the Oilers still maintain a market rating higher than Los Angeles despite an 82-game season that’s left Edmonton a step behind the deeper, less-banged-up Kings.
Series bet: Kings to win (+110)
Game moneyline target prices:
Game 1/2/5/7: Los Angeles (-120 or better)
Game 3/4/6: Los Angeles (+120 or better)
Leading goal-scorer prop: Quentin Byfield (+1500, DraftKings)
Criteria:
1) Looking for a hot-scorer
2) Featured on the PP
3) Reason he’s underrated in the marketQuentin Byfield - a former No. 2 overall pick (2020) - seems to have found it. With 12 goals in his final 21 games (many of the highlight variety), the 6’5 forward is on the precipice of becoming a star.
Hopefully, he’ll get a chance to showcase his size and skill combination that’s built for the playoffs, causing problems in front of the net on the first unit of the Kings’ power play, but after taking a dirty cross-check from Darnell Nurse on Monday night, he’s day-to-day.
Maybe concern about Byfield’s availability is why the Kings’ second-leading goal scorer since the break is 15-to-1, but if there’s one difference-maker compared to the series in the three previous years, it’s Byfield’s development that could be the key to convert a few more goals this time around.
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