Stanley Cup Playoffs betting: Senators-Maple Leafs series preview
Two teams vie to prove their mettle in the next generation of the “Battle of Ontario”
For men of a certain age, “Habs-Leafs” is still the matchup that tickles their fancy (Richards, Mahovliches, Bauer, Gump - things of that nature), but for the generation chugging along behind, their formative years were spent sweating through heated series in the “Battle of Ontario.”
Over 20 years since the days of Alfie and Darcy Tucker, CuJo and Patrick Lalime, Vaclav Varada and Chad Kilger, a new generation of Senators and Maple Leafs go to sporting war in defending regional honor.
Those in Canada’s capital are hinging hopes on a 3-0 regular-season record over the provincial capital, while also worrying about a blue and white invasion to the Canadian Tire Centre. Meanwhile, Leafs Nation is wondering if winning just their third division title in 87 years (a sentence fragment that requires at least a second or third read), combined with this rekindling of a rivalry that was to their favor at the beginning of this millenium, is worth cranking up the Scotiabank Arena decibel level about a dull roar.
Both sides of this provincial dispute - once seemingly as basic as “old” versus “new,” but now in need of a jumpstart for us neutrals - have seen their teams blow past their regular-season point total in the betting market this season. So, while it may feel like Ottawa (90.5) has had the more surprisingly good season, when it comes to Toronto (101.5)… seriously, three division titles in 87 years!?!… they’ve also gone above-and-beyond.
The inside scoop
Whether you can find them on Substack, or elsewhere, here’s a take from a member of the media that’s followed each team closely, about what will make-or-break their chances in the playoffs.
The Senators:
“The performance of the Senators’ second and third line will be crucial for secondary scoring, but their biggest X-factor will be the play of the Thomas Chabot-Nick Jensen defensive pairing. From the beginning of the season through December, they were unquestionably the Senators’ best pair (54.5 xGF% in 36 games played). Since the start of this calendar year, their numbers have suffered (44.4 xGF% in 33 GP). With Jensen fighting an undisclosed lower-body injury, if the Sens are going to make a run, the pair will need to perform at a higher level.”
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, Rome in a DayThe Maple Leafs:
“The most underrated element that will make-or-break the Maple Leafs’ chances is the power play. Last year, the Leafs converted just 4.8% against the Bruins, leading to a Game 7 loss. It’s hard to score at 5-on-5, but the Leafs have done a good job playing in tight games this year, so now it comes down to winning the special teams‘ battle.”
- Zack Phillips, Leafs Nation After Dark
THE WINDOW’s Skaters Rating
ES HDC%: Even-strength high-danger chance share
ES XG%: Even strength expected goal share
SNIPES%: (ES HD Goals + Power-play goals) / (ES HDG + ES PP Opp)
RATING: Above (+) or Below (-) league average
NEUTRAL WIN%: Probability of winning on neutral ice
IWP: Implied win probability (from a moneyline)The even-strength numbers for both teams are, to be kind, “meh.”
Unsurprisingly, given the money invested in four forwards - Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, and John Tavares - the Maple Leafs’ SNIPES percentage (our measurement for pure scoring talent) has done the heavy-lifting, pushing their production to above league-average, as Toronto thoroughly got what they paid for.
We’re told by the hockey community at-large that Brady Tkachuk is built for the playoffs, which is the type of qualitative hypothesis that, while possibly true, isn’t something we make bets on. Tkachuk’s 9.9% shooting percentage is 255th in the NHL, in keeping with a forward group whose SNIPES% was below average. Had he not missed 10 games, Tkachuk likely would have hit the 30-goal mark, but coming up one shy means Ottawa went without a 30-goal scorer, while Toronto was a Matthew Knies’ goal shy of having four of them.
Goaltender Effects
We take into account of how the presumed starting goaltenders are playing coming into the postseason, estimating how much win probability will shift based on recent form. To be safe, we adjust that estimated win probability 25% towards the mean.
Toronto (the team and city) was hoping that someone would emerge in the crease, and Anthony Stolarz has come through in a big way down the stretch, saving almost a full goal per 60 minutes more than what would be expected of an average goaltender. It will be interesting to see if Leafs’ brass will opt to swap Joseph Woll in to keep their rotation up.
Stolarz hot run creates an interesting matchup, as Linus Ullmark - the 2023 Vézina Trophy winner, as part of a rotation of sorts with Boston - would have brought better numbers into most other series matchups, with the award resume to go with it.
How to bet Senators-Maple Leafs
After this series was made official, the NHL tweeted out the first series odds from FanDuel: Toronto -141 / Ottawa +116. Nevermind the absurd straddle, it shows early money came in on the Maple Leafs at what we think is a valuable price, pushing the odds through our -155/+155 estimate to a best price of -170. All of this shows the market getting bet into place to a point where there’s no value on either side compared to our numbers.
With no quantitative value to be had, we’ll have to think a little bit deeper of how the latest chapter of this rivalry will unfold.
The starting point of how we build our team ratings - even-strength play - suggests this series will be close, and that’s before looking at the Senators’ results against the Leafs this season. The elements where Toronto has an advantage - SNIPES and goaltending - could have some holes punched into them.
Historically, the Leafs’ big guns haven’t stepped up in the playoffs in a way commensurate with their regular season efficiency, and it wouldn’t shock the hockey community if that were the case again.
While Stolarz has been outstanding, even an adjusted “bar” of 0.7 GSAx/60 is still pretty high given he has just 34 minutes of lifetime playoff experience. Joseph Woll provides a good backup plan, but it would be easy to see the goaltending matchup tighten up statistically.
All of that suggests that we should be headed for a tight series, and there’s multiple paths to a scenario where one team is up 2-1 after three games.
With Game 4 projected close to a pick’em game, hoping to have this series tied 2-2 after four games, means we could be in a position to be have the trailing (read: desperate) team at +150 on a virtual moneyline in Game 4.
Should we see this series tied at two, we’ll then have enough information through four games for a possible in-series bet on one side to advance.
Series bet: Series tied after 4 games (+150, Bet365)
Game moneyline target prices:
Game 1/2/5/7: Ottawa (+166 or better) / Toronto (-135 or better)
Game 3/4/6: Toronto (+110 or better) / Ottawa (+110 or better)
Leading goal-scorer prop: John Tavares (+800, FanDuel)
Criteria:
1) Looking for a hot-scorer
2) Featured on the PP
3) Reason he’s underrated in the marketIf it felt like John Tavares scored in every second game down the stretch, it’s because he kind of did, with 17 goals in 26 games after the break. Playing alongside arguably the Leafs’ best playoff performer, William Nylander, and being around the net on the first power play unit, Tavares had his second-best scoring season since coming to Toronto.
With Nylander and Auston Matthews more popular bets, Tavares is the third choice on the team, providing an opportunity to back a near 40-goal scorer at pretty long odds.
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