Stanley Cup Playoffs Conference Final in-series betting update
Is all hope lost for the Hurricanes and Stars?
Once we get to this point in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, we’re at the mercy of the schedule, and the number of games actually available for consumption.
Through three games of the Eastern Conference Final, it looked like - by the time we got to four games completed - there would be nothing left to talk about as the Hurricanes dropped the first three games, but Carolina has stayed alive.
Meanwhile, in the Western Conference, things started well with the heavy metal stylings of the “Dal-las! Stars!”, after a quintet of the third period goals in Game 1, but they’ve since suffered the reverse of fortunes, dropping the most recent three games, finding themselves in the same current position as the Hurricanes.
With both conference final series at 3-1, is it all over but the crying? Or are there signs of hope for either trailing team?
Eastern Conference Final: Panthers (-1000) vs. Hurricanes (+860)
< Panthers lead 3-1 >
Game 5 (May 28)
Series preview keys
At the very least, the Hurricanes have been rated as equals to the Panthers by the betting market all season long.
Frederik Andersen has better advanced metrics than Sergei Bobrovsky, and the Hurricanes have home-ice advantage.
Given those two factors, we should have expected the Hurricanes to be favored in a series they are small underdogs in. Since, they’re not, that triggers a bet on Carolina.
Ticket held: Hurricanes to win (+110)
Even-strength metrics
It took 16 tries, but the Hurricanes finally won a conference final game, and therefore trigger a look at this still-running series. While that run of misfortune is a hot fact to quote amongst those loosely covering this series, the current edition of the Hurricanes has little to do with those failures of the past.
More relevant to their current situation, these Hurricanes have been failed by their goaltending in falling down 3-0 to the Panthers.
The overall numbers saw Frederik Andersen go from the best goalie in this playoffs (saving Carolina 15 goals more than an average goaltender in the first two series/10 games), to struggling so very hard (-5.01 GSAx in five periods). Then, his replacement for Game 3, Pyotr Kochetkov, didn’t do much better (-2.94 GSAx in four total periods).
But it wasn’t just the macro statistics that sapped the Canes’ will in the first three games, it’s WHEN the pucks got past their ‘tenders. Florida took the lead 8:30 into Game 1, 1:17 into Game 2, and 12:07 into Game 3. Later in the Game 3, when tied at one early in the third, Kochetkov allowed a weak backhander to go right underneath him, setting off the Panthers and their crowd.
All this is to preface the difficult-to-comprehend concept that Carolina’s prideful effort in Game 4 actually puts them ahead of Florida in even-strength expected goals (7.38-6.63) and high-danger chances (34-28), despite having one foot in the metaphorical grave.
While that’s on the strength of a territorial dominant 3-0 win (with two empty-net goals), we know that Carolina’s style is to slowly accumulate xG and HDC, only their level of finish can be painfully inept. Which is exemplified by the Canes having converted just one high-danger chance at 5-on-5 (and Sebastian Aho didn’t even use his stick).
Is there a bet?
While the series was likely lost when it took Carolina 210 minutes and 45 seconds to take a lead, there’s a pretty clear road map for the Hurricanes to win a high-level game. They need to get a lead, play lock-down defense (they allowed just two even-strength high-danger chances in Game 4 and their penalty kill is 86%), and rely on strong positional goaltending from Andersen.
Florida’s gotten this far thanks to a surprising surplus of scoring from their defense (15 goals) and their fourth line, but what if this “bonus offense” dries up?
We saw that in Game 4, as Andersen didn’t have to do much for the shutout. Sam Reinhart missed the game, and the remaining “top-6” forwards weren’t able to muster much danger.
Carolina’s first two series were given the label of “boring hockey,” but the dirty little secret is that’s the best way to win this time of year.
Per our series preview, our target price for betting the Carolina moneyline on games in Raleigh is -118. In Games 1 and 2, the best price available for the Canes was -123. Now, a moneyline of +110 is available at FanDuel.
The Hurricanes’ best chance is in a low-scoring game where they’ll able to strike first and batten down the hatches, so while the moneyline is being discounted, you could get a little spicier with a Same Game Parlay:
Game 5 SGP (+400 at Bet365)
Hurricanes moneyline
Hurricanes to score first
Under 5.5 goals
For more on the in-series outlook for the Conference Finals, check out Monday’s episode of THE WINDOW podcast.
Western Conference Final: Oilers (-1000) vs. Stars (+700)
< Oilers lead 3-1 >
Game 5 (May 29)
Series preview keys
After Stuart Skinner had back-to-back shutouts to close out the Golden Knights, and with the Oilers’ depth skaters scoring, Edmonton comes into the series at their high-point in the betting market.
Even if the Oilers continue at that level, the Stars - with Miro Heiskanen back at full-speed and with their depth of scoring (Matt Duchene, Jason Robertson, etc.) still yet to factor onto the scoresheet, they have some room between their market rating and their ceiling.
Skinner’s inconsistent play makes him less reliable than the steady Jake Oettinger.
Ticket held: Stars to win (+100)
Even-strength metrics
The Western Conference Final has been more “high-event” than its counterpart, but that’s only led to a wider variance in results.
Heading into the series, we thought that the Stars being on the short-end of the even-strength expected goal share (xG%) in their first two series might be something of a misnomer, and that they’d have more success in that advanced metric against the Oilers. That’s been the case, as Dallas has driven play 54.2% to 45.8% at 5-on-5 (and out-chanced Edmonton 41-37 in high-danger areas).
Unfortunately, one year after they outscored Edmonton at even-strength in the 2024 WCF only to be crushed by the Oilers’ power play, the Stars have allowed five power-play goals on 14 attempts to Edmonton - the primal reason Dallas lost Game 4. On top of that, the subjective category of “puck luck” has gone Edmonton’s way, with several good breaks in Game 2 and 3.
The bounces that have lead to many of the Oilers’ goals have left Jake Oettinger with little chance to make a save, and losing games has detracted from Oettinger’s repeated point blank saves in Games 2 and 4.
It also doesn’t help that Stuart Skinner is embodying the “spotting dimes” version of George Costanza. At times, he’s haphazardly found a way to prevent a thoroughly unbelievable 9.14 goals that would otherwise be allowed by an average goaltender (GSAx). For a goaltender with a GSAx of just over 6.0 in 51 regular-season games, I’m not sure “fluke” is a strong enough word for this 3-game stretch.
Is there a bet?
The motto for Dallas has to be “just keep playing,” and, in theory, the pucks will find a way to get through Skinner, but time is running short.
Once the Stars lost Game 2, it was understood that they just needed to win one road game to force a Game 7 at home, and while they failed to do so on their first two tries, they certainly deserved one.
That should give Dallas some hope should there be a Game 6, but first they have to take care of business at home - something they’ve done in Games 5 and 7 against Colorado and in Game 6 against the Jets.
From a market perspective, in our series preview, we listed the Stars as a buy at -120 on the moneyline or better for their home games, and nothing we’ve seen (outside of some tough hops and a black-out Oilers’ goaltender) would suggest that isn’t worth playing on Thursday, if you can find it. Nevertheless, we’ll bump that target price up given the underlying metrics, and the Stars’ ability to channel desperation in a positive way.
With the high-variance nature of this series, there’s no singular path to a Stars’ win, as they’re capable of winning without the first goal, or in an “over” or “under” game.
Game 5: Stars moneyline (-125 or better)
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