Super Bowl LIX Betting Preview
The side, total, and best MVP candidates relative to market
You’d think it had been stricken from the history books or something, but, no, it’s right there - the Kansas City Chiefs have lost a Super Bowl before.
The X’s and O’s from that fateful February day don’t likely apply to Super Bowl LIX. Perhaps the sheer involvement of opposing quarterback Tom Brady or a lack of fans in Tampa during the COVID Bowl (or maybe even the didn’t-know-it-would-ever-be-a-thing absence of Taylor Swift) makes it a more excusable defeat. Regardless, yes, the Chiefs CAN lose.
The concept of Patrick Mahomes losing a Super Bowl, while seemingly far-fetched, sits right alongside the notion that it’s actually possible that the coach who yells at his own fans, the receiver who cracks a book on the sideline, the offense with the lamest super-effective play, and the team who employs what appears to be a modern-day version of Suge Knight (Italian edition), can actually win a Super Bowl.
Of course, this is helped a great deal by the great deal Philadelphia got on a superstar running back, and a series of other moves made by arguably the best GM in the NFL. Also, imagine “Big Dom” in the postgame celebration. Amidst the confetti, we can still make out the confused look on Andy Reid when the second handshake he gets is from a large fellow in a strangely pristine white hat, who’s managed to position himself perfectly in line with the camera’s view, again.
By now, you likely know where this is headed, and if you listened to this week’s THE WINDOW Podcast, you know a bet on the Eagles has already been made.
Eagles vs. Chiefs (-1.5, 49.5)
As of this writing, the best odds available on the Eagles to win the Super Bowl are +110 (a 47.6% implied win probability), and the cheapest price for another Chiefs’ championship is -120 (54.5% IWP). Shave off a little on each side for the sportsbooks to make a profit, and we’re talking about a game with the largest betting market in the world, being essentially 51/49, with the franchise looking for an historic 3-peat being only favored by an eyelash.
Why, without any significant injuries, are the Chiefs favored by essentially the smallest amount possible (since bookmakers are never going to let a Super Bowl sit at pick’em for two weeks, eliminating an entire betting market for them to win money on)?
The last time we publicly tracked the betting market’s opinion of all the teams in the NFL - after Week 11 - we estimated the Eagles were perceived slightly higher than the Chiefs. Since then, Philadelphia’s only improved their public perception with a win at Baltimore, and all three playoff victories where they had at least a 12-point lead in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, through no fault of their own, the best notes on the Chiefs’ resume are a pair of home wins over the Texans, and last week’s squeaker over the Bills.
Buffalo was bet down to pick’em in the AFC Championship - an admission from the sharpest bettors in the world that the Bills were the better team (and that it closed at pick’em only because of K.C.’s home-field advantage).
Whether it’s Week 11, or the Super Bowl, we bet where the value lies, willing to get beat by the opposing quarterback’s magic, or an official’s judgement call that could go either direction going the wrong one.
First prediction: By the time this game kicks off, it will be 50/50 game, if not a full flip to the Eagles as the slight favorite.
But why are the Eagles the better team, and how might that manifest itself on the turf in New Orleans?
The Game Handicap
In a twist of fate last week, a strong handicap of both the AFC and NFC Championship games translated to pretty comfortable wins for our best game bets. So, why not look back at what we did well there and see if it applies here?
The Chiefs scored 32 points on the Bills. The most they’ve tallied all season.
Is that because the Chiefs’ offense is finally “in the groove” or K.C.’s “found something?”
We bet the over in the AFC title game because we knew a total of 47.5 was low (it closed 49.5), as it was giving the Bills’ defense credit for slowing the Ravens in the Divisional Round, even though there were two main issues going from one week to the next:
Buffalo only had defensive success in the first half before Baltimore made adjustments to the Bills’ move to bigger personnel (replacing Taron Johnson with a linebacker on more than two-thirds of the snaps, among others)
The Bills lost Taylor Rapp, and Christian Benford was concussed, making him questionable for the Chiefs game
With some question marks on the back end, and not having the “going big” card to play, the Bills’ defense was going to be vulnerable. When Benford was re-injured, Buffalo was in big trouble.
However, the 2024 version of the Bills’ offense - running the football efficiently, no turnovers - would also be able to score, and each side would force the other into offensive urgency.
The Eagles’ defense doesn’t have to play any such card. General Manager Howie Roseman did something so simple - a boardroom example of “not beating yourself” - similar to what we see teams fail at all the time on the field.
At the height of Georgia’s powers, Roseman looked at what made the Bulldogs great - their defense - and simply drafted all their good players. At least as many as he could get. And we’re supposed to be surprised that Philly’s defense grew into the best in the NFL with Jalen Carter, Jordan Davis, Nolan Smith, and (pre-injury) Nakobe Dean?
There are no holes on the Eagles’ defense because Roseman also filled in the gaps with little-known, but wildly effective, veterans and crushed the draft from top-to-bottom. He also hired Vic Fangio, which is an important note, beyond the much-ballyhooed turnaround in the Eagles’ defensive metrics from last season to this.
After Fangio’s stint as the Broncos’ head coach (where Denver held the high-octane version of the Chiefs’ offense to fewer than their average yards per play in four of six meetings), Roseman thought enough of Fangio to quietly hire him as a consultant for the 2022 team and, more publicly, a 2-week contract ahead of Super Bowl LVII. A move to ensure he was there to help prepare for Mahomes and the Chiefs.
Was this effective? At first blush, the Chiefs scored 38 points, but seven came on a defensive touchdown and seven more came on a 5-yard drive after a big Kadarius Toney punt return. Mahomes was 21/27 for 182 passing yards. While Fangio went on to take the Dolphins’ DC gig, the Eagles were happy to make him theirs again this past offseason, clearly impressed with him the first time around.
Between the evidence we have about Fangio’s impact from both a micro and macro perspective, and the turnover in defensive personnel, this is easily the best defense that Mahomes will have faced this season, and maybe ever. The Chiefs’ offense has played four real games against top-five defenses (Houston twice, San Francisco, Denver once) and only managed 4.2, 5.4, 4.8, and 4.6 yards per play.
For your buddies chat (or Super Bowl party):
Fangio was on the staff that held Mahomes to 182 passing yards in SB LVII, and the Chiefs’ offense has averaged just 4.75 yards per play against top defenses this season. (By comparison, the Giants averaged 4.7 YPP)The other element to taking the over in the AFC Championship was an understanding that the Chiefs’ defense isn’t what it used to be. Winning games without big statistical games from Mahomes might have been due to a top-five defense (in YPP) last season, but they’ve gone from allowing 4.8 YPP in 2023 to 5.4 YPP in 2024.
The primary reason that we took the Eagles last week was because of the market underrating them against Washington, but the secondary point of conviction comes from a Philadelphia offense that can win in the trenches against anyone without resorting to trickery, thanks to an overall talent level that should win out in any game where there isn’t a major discrepancy in turnover margin.
The Bills came into Arrowhead with the best turnover margin in the NFL, and left +1, because the football statistics community still hasn’t acknowledged that a turnover-on-downs is, in fact, a turnover. Buffalo’s pair of fourth-down failures came on the game’s two most talked-about plays, and had they failed on a pair of other fourth downs (that were touchdowns), they likely would have gotten blown out.
Now the Chiefs face the Eagles, who are second to the Bills in turnover margin (+1.1). From the eye test, we know that Philadelphia will “brotherly shove” their way to fourth-down conversions (or avoid them altogether), but a conversion rate of 73.3% (3rd in the NFL) proves they’re good at both methods of keeping the ball.
There’s a third method: Making your kicks. Jake Elliott is 12/13 on field goals (and 22/22 on PATs indoors), compared to 84.1% in field-goal kicking outdoors. Interestingly, Elliott’s lone indoor miss was in New Orleans earlier this season on a 60-yard attempt.
Explosive offense helps, and Saquon Barkley has provided that for the Eagles, but whether or not he takes one to the house from deep again, we know Philadelphia won’t be dissuaded to give him a chance early and often. Unlike the Bills, didn’t get around to using James Cook until it was too late. Having seen Cook run for 6.5 yards per carry against the Chiefs, why would we expect Kansas City to be able to stop Barkley when all the other teams haven’t either?
Putting any kind of nail in the Chiefs’ coffin feels impossible, and it won’t be easy for the Eagles. However, most of the teams that just barely lose to Kansas City do so by beating themselves, or frankly, encountering bad luck. The reality is, the Chiefs don’t face too many teams on their level on their road to the Super Bowl, especially since they regularly waltz to a division title (even if they lose “big” regular season games like against the Eagles last season along the way) and occasionally start the playoffs with a bye or a cupcake matchup at home.
Here’s what list of the Chiefs’ evenly-matched showdowns looks like since 2019:
SB LIV: Trailed by 10 in the fourth quarter, came back and beat 49ers 31-20
Jimmy Garoppolo misses Emmanuel Sanders for game-clinching score
SB LV: Lost to Bucs 31-9
Beat Bills in overtime of Divisional Round 42-36 in “13 seconds game”
Bills botch defending the final 13 seconds, lost OT coin toss
Lost to Bengals in overtime
Beat Bengals 23-20 in 2022 AFC Championship
Bengals commit late hit out of bounds on Mahomes to put Chiefs in position for game-winning field goal
Beat Eagles 38-35 in SB LVII
Late holding penalty on Eagles’ James Bradberry allows Chiefs to kick game-winning field goal
Beat Bills 27-24 in Divisional Round of 2023 season
Bills miss game-tying field goal after Josh Allen misses wide-open receiver to take 4-point lead
Beat Ravens 17-10 in 2023 AFC Championship
The Ravens refused to use their running backs
Zay Flowers fumbles at the goal line
Beat 49ers in SB LVIII by three in overtime
San Francisco suffers injuries to Dre Greenlaw, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle
Beat Bills by three in 2024 AFC Championship
Allen called short on 4th-and-1
Dalton Kincaid unable to haul in reception on 4th-and-5
Obviously, an 8-2 record in these coin-flip games is impressive, but not one of the victories have been convincing enough to suggest that one or two high-leverage plays wasn’t the difference. Those plays - often even less impactful than a turnover - came in various forms and fashion.
Maybe the crucial calls go the Chiefs’ way, or the Eagles are stricken with enough injuries for Kansas City to gain the small edge they need, but unlike any of the last six matchups, the Eagles are built to not need the singular quarterback heroics required of Allen, Lamar Jackson, or Joe Burrow, and are the valuable side to win Super Bowl LIX.
Pick: Eagles moneyline (+110 at DraftKings)
Total: Under 49.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
While the crux of the handicap in backing the Eagles to win relies on their defense to hold up (particularly in the red zone, where Philadelphia was fifth in opponent touchdown conversion percentage and the Chiefs were 22nd in converting offensively), we also respect Steve Spagnuolo enough to think the Chiefs’ defensive coordinator will, at least, slow the Eagles’ offense.
The under is worth an accompanying bet to the Eagles moneyline, or as an alternative if you don’t want to play against Mahomes and the Chiefs.MVP
Jalen Hurts (+370, FanDuel)
My how the (betting) times are a-changin’.
Two years ago, the non-quarterback, commonly agreed-upon, soon-to-be 2022 Offensive Player of the Year, Cooper Kupp was lined with odds at +600 to win Super Bowl MVP. We won backing the stat-sheet stuffer at long odds.
Two years later, and Saquon Barkley - the presumed OPOY - is the second-choice in the MVP market, between +260 and +280. In a rare circumstance, the “underdog” quarterback isn’t considered the likely MVP if his team wins.
For argument’s sake (and ease of math), let’s say the Super Bowl winner is a 50/50 proposition and the MVP will come from the winning side. For Barkley to win, we have to assume an Eagles’ win, and his odds are actually 52.6% under that big-picture assumption. At +370, Hurts is considered just 42.6% likely to convert a Philadelphia victory into an MVP award. Theoretically, the remaining Eagles collectively make up the other 4.8% of MVP win probability.
The Eagles won 12 regular season games and three playoff games with Hurts (and Barkley) healthy. A quick survey of those games and we can determine who would have been anointed the Eagles’ MVP in each of those 15 games:
Week 1: Barkley
Week 3: Barkley
Week 6: Hurts
Week 7: Barkley
Week 8: Hurts
Week 9: Barkley
Week 10: Hurts
Week 11: Barkley
Week 12: Barkley
Week 13: Barkley*
Week 14: Hurts
Week 15: Hurts
Wild Card: Hurts*
Divisional: Barkley
NFC Championship: Hurts
In eight of 15 (53.5%) games, Barkley was the choice on offense. In 46.7% of them, Hurts was the standout offensive player. On the face of it, there’s a 4.1% edge (46.7-42.6) on a Hurts bet at this price.
Barkley’s early-season numbers and explosive gains, combined with taking the lead role when Hurts was out, set Barkley up for winning OPOY, but even if you give the “Wild Card MVP” to a defender (more on that below), Hurts has been the key to victory in three of the other four most recent Eagles’ wins.
If the Chiefs don’t allow a rush of 60+ yards, Barkley can still be effective, put up the numbers typical of a top tailback to help Philadelphia, but Hurts will need to be the difference-maker in winning - through the air and on the ground - and thus, the Super Bowl MVP.
Bet 0.7 units to win 2.6Xavier Worthy (+3000, FanDuel)
Ok, so, we’re on Philadelphia to win the Super Bowl, and therefore, looking through the best Eagles’ options relative to market is a standard path.
However, what if we’re wrong?
Mahomes won the Super Bowl MVP in each of the Chiefs’ three big-game wins, but the first one probably should have gone to running back Damien Williams (133 total yards and two touchdowns), and last year, if Travis Kelce had been the recipient of the game-winning touchdown, he might have earned the honor instead.
Unless you’re new to this space, you know we’ve basically backed Worthy to score at every opportunity down the stretch, turning quite a profit with touchdowns against the Texans, Steelers, and Bills, with a near-miss in the Divisional Round. Each time, our main point was that the Chiefs go into the playbook to give Worthy a chance to score near the goal line. He’s become their most dangerous red-zone threat.
So, IF the Chiefs win again, it’s more than 6.4% likely that Worthy is the key that unlocks the Kansas City offense in the game’s biggest moments. With Mahomes already the possessor of three SB MVPs, there may be a bigger appetite to give the award to someone else. Rather than kick ourselves for missing a chance to profit off one of our favorite players this season, let’s add a Worthy candidate to our card, just in case.
Bet 0.2 units to win 6 unitsEagles Defenders:
Jalen Carter (+7500, FanDuel)
Zack Baun (+15000, Bet365)
Cooper DeJean (+20000, DraftKings)
Oren Burks (+30000, FanDuel)
Nolan Smith (+30000, Bet365)
C.J. Gardner-Johnson (+30000, Bet365)
Reed Blankenship (+60000, FanDuel)
Splitting a half-unit across seven players:
Carter: 0.18
Baun: 0.13
DeJean: 0.05
Burks: 0.04
Smith: 0.04
Gardner-Johnson: 0.04
Blankenship: 0.02More quick math - there have been 58 previous Super Bowls.
Without even looking, if there’s been so much as one “fluky” Super Bowl MVP than anyone off the beaten path listed at 60-1 or longer is theoretically viable, but you can’t bet on everyone.
Even if the Chiefs aren’t an offense-centric team anymore, shutting down Mahomes would get some attention, especially given the reputation the Eagles’ defense has earned this season.
Logically, the players we should look for are those on the field and around the ball the most. Each player listed above played more than 80% of the snaps last week. Starting there, we went price-shopping to find the best values.
Of note, in our breakdown of Eagles wins above, there are two games denoted with an asterisk. Those are games where it’s very easy to make the argument that the defense won the game for the Eagles and there was at least one particular standout amongst the unit.
Week 13: Zack Baun had 13 total tackles, 1 TFL, and 0.5 sacks
Outside of a 25-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter, Barkley was largely ineffective
Wild Card: Reed Blankenship had 11 total tackles, Nolan Smith had 8 tackles, 2 TFL and 2 sacks
Hurts had two passing touchdowns, but just 131 passing yards
That Baun, Blankenship, and Smith all show up in this rudimentary breakdown is enough to put them on our card at the best odds available.
The Eagles play five defensive backs on almost every snap. Cooper DeJean also returns punts. While it’s unlikely he makes a big play on a return, whatever chance that he does makes him a more valuable bet than other corners Darius Slay and Quinyon Mitchell, lined at the same price.
The fifth defensive back, CJ Gardner-Johnson, has a longer price than DeJean, Slay and Mitchell, which is good. He’s also a noted malingerer near the line of scrimmage, and a ball-hawk that led the Eagles in interceptions with, six and may see a fair amount of Travis Kelce. That equals opportunity.
Burks (300-1) would fall into the category of Super Bowl XLVIII MVP Malcolm Smith - a little-known linebacker who the ball happened to find, allowing him to return a Peyton Manning interception for a touchdown in a game where everyone on the Seahawks did just enough to contribute to the blowout of the slightly-favored, but highly-regarded Broncos, while also not doing enough for any of them to be the most valuable.
Burks is filling in for Nakobe Dean (second on the Eagles in tackles). In five games, Burks has three forced fumbles, a sack, and a pass defended. In a game that might come down to one play, like the bounce of a roulette ball, it’s worth having a chip on as many numbers with as high a payout as possible.