Super Bowl LIX Prop Betting: The Mega-Card
30+ prop bets I’ve made for Eagles-Chiefs
A Chiefs’ win secures an historical accomplishment (something we usually want to bet against), as they would be the first team to win three Super Bowls in a row. However, if NFL “script writers” knew what they were doing, and had a little foresight, an Eagles’ win would set up a rubber match NEXT season in Super Bowl LX.
Based on our pick for the game (we’re starting to see the predicted pricing drift toward Philadelphia), we’re hoping that all that’s missing to the long-term storyline is the NFL screwing up the timing by not having Jason Kelce hold off on retirement. Writers, amirite?
Of course, all this scripting talk is tongue-in-cheek, and, were it serious, it would be as irresponsible as trying to make a case for “heads” over “tails” in the pregame coin toss. Alas, we’ve only got on-field bets for you, but, a LOT of them.
Whether there’s a script or not (there’s not), we’ll continue to try to swipe a page or two from the story of Super Bowl LIX, in the same way we have all playoffs (and season) long, as the prop market has done the heavy lifting for us this postseason.
Player Props: 31-23 (57.4%, +6.55 units)
Touchdowns: 12-36 (+9.8 units)Of course, it’s the Super Bowl, so we need a “super” list of bets to have our head spinning in-between bites of fried chicken and specially-procured beverages.
While we attack Eagles-Chiefs with a high-volume approach, it’s important to remember to manage your bankroll appropriately.
Passing Props
Patrick Mahomes: Under 252.5 passing yards (-111, DraftKings)
Why not start by fading the quarterback continuing to build his resume toward GOAT status?!?
Two years ago, behind the scenes as a consultant, Vic Fangio contributed to coordinating the Eagles’ defense holding Mahomes to 182 passing yards. Last season, Mahomes managed only 177 passing yards on 43 attempts against the Eagles at Arrowhead. In both games, the Eagles were willing to give up rushing yards to the Chiefs (but who knows which running will have the most success this time around).
Patrick Mahomes: Interception (+117, DraftKings)
Much has been made about the Chiefs’ refusal to turn the ball over in the latter half of the season (seven straight games), only to finally fumble the ball away once against the Bills last week. Is K.C.’s turnover avoidance a strategic shift, or just luck?
Given Mahomes started the season with interceptions in the first seven games, and 11 picks in the Chiefs’ first 10, he’s certainly not immune to it. In his four previous Super Bowl appearances, Mahomes threw at least one interception in the three against teams other than the Eagles. At plus-money, it’s worth betting that Philly gets one on Sunday.
Jalen Hurts: Longest pass completion - Under 34.5 yards (-115, Bet365)
If they can avoid it, the Eagles will try to avoid risk, relying on the legs of Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts, plus their intermediate passing game, to keep the ball. Hurts’ most frequent downfield shots come down the sideline, where Eagles’ receivers can win in man-to-man coverage with the sideline there to act almost like a border, where if Hurts doesn’t put it on point, it just falls out of bounds.
When Hurts does connect on those throws, there’s rarely any yards after catch. The vast majority of long completions feature a throw that travels around 30 yards and extra yardage gained beyond that takes it over the prescribed number. Hurts has gone eight games in a row without a reception of longer than 31 yards because his long completions are almost entirely air-yards only.
Receiving Props
The first drive
There are a LOT of “first” props, and frankly, the vast majority of them are just kind of luck-centric, coin-flip-style bets, that are best left for your Super Bowl Party prop sheet.
BUT, Super Bowl prop betting does beg from some element of fun, especially during the opening drive(s), so we’ll narrow our focus to the passing game for each side.
The basic handicap: One quarterback (Hurts) will likely have a safer throw drawn up for him as part of the game-script, while the other (Mahomes) doesn’t need something to get him into the groove of a game he’s seen everything in.
First reception of the game: Dallas Goedert (+650, DraftKings) / Marquise Brown (+1000)
Split a unit on long shots Dallas Goedert and Marquise Brown to have the first reception of the game.
Chiefs player to record 1st reception: Marquise Brown (+600, FanDuel)
To record a reception on 1st drive: Marquise Brown (+180, FanDuel)
Marquise Brown: Over 4.5 receiving yards in the 1st quarter (-114, FanDuel)
Race to 20+ receiving yards: Marquise Brown (+760, FanDuel)
The Chiefs are drastically different from the Eagles in that they have at least a half-dozen options in the passing game. Brown’s overall numbers (3 receptions for 35 yards in two playoff games) don’t suggest that he’s likely to be the first look for Mahomes, but no one’s stats on Kansas City does.
We know that Brown’s snap count has gone up in each of his four games played for the Chiefs (20, 25, 34, 43), second among Chiefs’ wide receivers, but also, Brown was high up in the pecking order on the opening script in the Chiefs’ first playoff game, being targeted on the third play against Houston. Then, this is how the AFC Championship Game began:
Against the Eagles’ corners, it will be harder to get Brown the ball, but the Chiefs best chance might be on a pre-designed play that they’ve rehearsed repeatedly. At such long prices, and with Mahomes less likely to play it safe early, Brown’s worth a shot to have a reception on the first drive, with a sprinkle on the longer shot for the first Chiefs’ catch and overall.
Knowing our luck, Brown will make an impact on the second drive instead, so let’s add the over on his first quarter yardage, with a similar sprinkle on Brown being the first receiver to 20+ yards - something he can do on one catch, as Mahomes‘ best down-field target.
Player to have the longest Air Yards from a single reception: Marquise Brown (+710, FanDuel)
FanDuel offers some intriguing prop bets around the NFL’s NextGen stats. If we think that Brown is the Chiefs’ biggest deep threat, and the Eagles might struggle to connect on a long bomb, taking Brown at better than 7-to-1 to catch the longest pass down the field is worth a look. Especially since many of the other options are skilled in run-after-catch.Eagles player to record 1st reception: Dallas Goedert (+280, DraftKings)
In the Eagles‘ first playoff game against the Packers, Hurts’ first completion came on third down in the red zone (a touchdown pass to Jahan Dotson), but for the remaining drives, Goedert was the first target on four drives, compared to AJ Brown once, DeVonta Smith once, and three drives that were rushing plays only.
The next week, in the Divisional Round, Goedert had the first reception of the game.
In the NFC Championship, Saquon Barkley took the Eagles’ first play from scrimmage to the house. On their second drive, Hurts opened with an incomplete pass to Brown, but found Goedert on 2nd-and-10 for the first Eagles reception again.
To have 1+ reception in each quarter: Dallas Goedert (+450, DraftKings)
Goedert’s slightly longer than even money to have a catch on the first drive, so we’ll skip that bet, instead trying a longer shot bet on the Eagles’ tight end to have a reception in each quarter.
Goedert had a reception in each of the first three quarters against the Commanders, but the blowout score meant that the Eagles only ran three plays that weren’t either in the red zone or during closing time. In what should be a closer game, Goedert should be looked to by Hurts throughout the game.
DeVonta Smith: Over 4.5 receptions (+104, FanDuel)
Most receptions: DeVonta Smith (+700, DraftKings)
Smith has caught exactly four passes on four targets in every Eagles’ playoff game this postseason, so why wouldn’t oddsmakers set the line for his Super Bowl receptions at 4.5?
In seven of Smith’s 13 games in the regular season, he had 6+ receptions, but more importantly, Smith hasn’t been needed in the fourth quarters of any of the Eagles’ playoff games. Hurts threw four passes in the fourth quarter against Green Bay, three in the snow against the Rams (one to Smith), and two against the Commanders (one to Smith).
With more offensive urgency, the Eagles should throw more to Smith, a player who hasn’t missed a target this postseason, and now gets to catch passes indoors.
A.J. Brown: Under 70.5 receiving yards (+100, Bet365)
Smith will get short targets behind the line of scrimmage to make sure the ball finds his hands, at times lining up in the slot or going in motion. Brown, being the bigger outside threat will be the main focus of the Chiefs’ pass coverage.
Brown’s gone over this number just four times since November 10th. Two of those instances came against the Commanders’ poor pass defense, and one against a Rams’ secondary that didn’t have anyone to match up with Brown in Week 12. With Trent McDuffie on the other side, Hurts may look away from Brown more than usual.
Eagles players to have a reception: Under 5.5 (-130, DraftKings)
We can be almost certain that Brown, Smith, Goedert, and Barkley will have a reception on Sunday. Acknowledging that, two other Eagles will need to not only get a target but have a reception.
The main candidates are Jahan Dotson and Grant Calcaterra.
Dotson hasn’t had a reception since the aforementioned first pass of the playoffs for Hurts, and Calcaterra also has just one in the Eagles’ three playoff games. That amounts to a 66% chance that one of them has a reception, and a 10.9% chance that both do.
Kenneth Gainwell has also been a factor in the passing game, but he’s nursing both a concussion and a knee injury, and is questionable. With it being the Super Bowl, there’s little reason to save Barkley for anything, so back-up snaps may be hard to come by, especially if they’re to fall to rookie third-stringer, Will Shipley.
Travis Kelce: Longest reception - Under 20.5 yards (-110, DraftKings)
The Texans had a coverage breakdown allowing Travis Kelce to run free through the middle of the field. Let’s bet against that happening to the Eagles, since Kelce only had a long reception of over 20 yards in seven of 16 regular season games, and in their two recent meetings, the Eagles have done a decent job against the Chiefs’ star (13 receptions for 145 yards in two games).
JuJu Smith-Schuster: Under 1.5 receptions (+101, DraftKings)
In Week 5, the Chiefs were super-shorthanded at the receiver position, and Smith-Schuster saved the day with a seven-catch effort on Monday Night Football. Other than that, JuJu had more than one catch in just three other regular season games. In the AFC title game, Mahomes took advantage of the Bills’ banged-up secondary (and rookie safety) finding Smith-Schuster for a 29- and 31-yarder. With coverage breakdowns less likely from the Eagles, JuJu should continue to provide excellent run-blocking, but have minimal impact in the passing game.
Noah Gray: Over 1.5 receptions (+115, Bet365)
The one thing the Eagles haven’t had to deal with when facing the Chiefs in the past? A second, viable tight end in the passing game.
After a stretch of 2+ receptions in 10-of-11 games, the Mahomes and Andy Reid know Gray can be relied upon, despite finishing the season slowly on the stat sheet. In the playoffs, while Gray didn’t have a catch against the Bills (a defense notoriously good against opposing tight ends), he caught all three looks against the Texans and should be a good alternative when the Eagles are locked in on Kelce.
Rushing Props
Chiefs players to record a rush attempt: Under 4.5 (-122, FanDuel)
Mahomes will run (Note: He’s lined at 5.5 with heavy juice to the over, compared to plus-money for Over 4.5 in the last two games. Ah, the good ol’ days). Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco will get their carries. Who are the other two?
Worthy’s likely in the game plan for some version of an end-around, but that’s not necessarily guaranteed.
Carson Steele hasn’t had a meaningful carry since November, and Travis Kelce hasn’t been asked to “quarterback sneak” since Week 2. So, unless Matt Ariza is asked to run around the end zone for a safety again, this bet comes down to whether third-down back, Samaje Perine, will get a carry - something he hasn’t done this postseason.
Saquon Barkley: Longest rush - Under 25.5 yards (-125, DraftKings)
I don’t think that the Eagles will turn away from the running game, and Barkley will have an impact with 20+ carries, and he’ll likely clear the high hurdle that is his prescribed total yardage. However, this long rush number is a prime example of a star player seeing one of his props getting posted (or bet up) too high for the biggest game of them all.
Facing a defense similar to the Ravens, Steelers, and Packers in capability, Barkley isn’t likely to break an excessively long run, just as he wasn’t able to in the three most recent matchups against those teams.
Chiefs: Under 114.5 rushing yards (-108, FanDuel)
Depending where you look, Hunt, Pacheco, and Mahomes are collectively lined at 97.5 yards, 17 yards shy of this total. If that collective group was an individual player with explosive capability, you’d worry about a wider range of potential results. For example, Barkley’s explosiveness makes it less surprising if he cleared his 112.5 rushing yards by 20+. All it would take is one of his patented explosive runs.
However, with Hunt, Pacheco and Mahomes, none of those players are likely to break off a long enough run to send them over their total by a significant margin. What remains dangerous is the explosiveness of Xavier Worthy, but if we can avoid a massive gain on the ground from the rookie speedster, the Chiefs should stay under this rushing total as a team.
Triple Crown (Game leaders parlay):
Patrick Mahomes / Marquise Brown / Saquon Barkley (+1600, DraftKings)
Chalk up Mahomes and Barkley to lead the game in passing and rushing yards, but you should go looking deeper down the board for a receiving yardage leader. With AJ Brown lined at 70.5 (and our thought he stays under), it might not take that much to lead the game in receiving yards. If Mahomes and “Hollywood” can connect on a deep one, that puts the Chiefs’ Brown in play to the lead the way, and provide a big payout.Defensive/Special teams Props
Nolan Smith: Over 0.25 sacks (-102, DraftKings) / 2+ total sacks (+588, DraftKings)
I was already looking to bet on Nolan Smith to torment the Chiefs’ offensive tackles, and then I saw this quote from former star defensive tackle Gerald McCoy on “This Is Football” with Kevin Clark.
“Jalen Carter, as great as he is… Nolan Smith will be the headache in this game.”
Hell yeah!
We’ll play it safe by taking the over on 0.25 sacks in case Smith is joined in the backfield by a teammate in taking down Mahomes, but, like with some of our offensive props, we’ll add a little to our position with Smith to have a big game and racking up two sacks. So even if he’s snubbed for MVP with a 2-sack game, we still have a decent win.
Oren Burks: Over 8.5 tackles and assists (-120, FanDuel)
Like Smith (and a handful of other Eagles’ defenders, we have a long-shot position on Burks to win MVP if the ball finds its way into his hands, but if the replacement for Nakobe Dean (8.53 tackles per game this season), continues to be all over the field - accumulating 9+ tackles for the third time in five starts, at least we’ll have a win here.
Will there be a missed field goal/PAT? No (+130, Bet365)
If nothing else, this should feel like a day at the beach for Harrison Butker and Jake Elliott, going from the cold of Kansas City and Philadelphia, respectively. Maybe our thought that better kicking conditions (and two aggressive offenses on fourth down) means that there won’t be a missed kick backfires when Nick Sirianni sends Elliott out there for a 60-yarder, but both kickers are more experienced than Saints’ kicker Blake Grupe, who missed just one kick in the warm confines of the Superdome this season.
Total turnovers: Under 2.5 (-115, Bet365)
Both these teams are here largely because they’ve avoided committing turnovers down the stretch and into the playoffs. Even if we think there’s a decent chance that Mahomes throws an interception, the Chiefs average just one lost fumble per five games this season. Meanwhile, Hurts and Barkley have fumbled the ball just six times all season, losing only three. If Hurts is careful with where he’s throwing it, two bend-but-don’t-break defenses that weren’t overly aggressive in gambling for turnovers, should amount to a relatively clean game.
Scoring Props
Largest lead of the game by either team: Under 14.5 points (-140, Bet365)
We’re already on the under 49 total points, so the feeling is that every point is going to be worth that much more. Of course, you already know the Chiefs have a low-level addiction to playing close games this season, and in all three Super Bowls wins they’ve trailed, but by no more than 10 points. If the big game is a blowout, it’s going to be because the Eagles get a lead and keep playing downhill in the second half, at which point we’ll be fine sacrificing this prop bet for our side to get home with ease.
Shortest touchdown: Over 1.5 yards (+154, FanDuel)
You see this market offered up and the first thing you think of is, what?
The “Brotherly Shove.”
It’s automatic if the Eagles find themselves on the 1-yard line, but they have to get their first.
What’s lost in the assumption that there will be a 1-yard touchdown is that both teams are pretty good at scoring on the ground from the 2-yard line or further out. In the Eagles’ case, even via extended “Tush Push.”
With so many players on both sides with a pristine nose for the goal line, it may take a defensive penalty in the end zone for their to be a snap from the 1, but with two good secondaries, who combined for just 18 pass interference penalties in 39 games (across the entirety of the field), we may not see the teams ever line up tight to the goal line.
If it were a -110 payout, we’d steer clear, but at better than a 3-to-2 payout, we’ll hope any touchdowns are taken care of from a little further out.
DeVonta Smith: Anytime touchdown (+240, DraftKings)
It’s been explained why we like Smith to be frequently targeted, and that translates into our interest that the Eagles’ speediest receiver scores more often than the longest odds suggest. It’s also worth a reminder that Smith led the Eagles in receiving touchdowns during the regular season, and had he found the end zone at some point in the playoffs, we wouldn’t likely be getting this decent of a payout.
Dallas Goedert: Anytime touchdown (+350, Bet365)
Goedert has scored this postseason, and the over on his yardage total is one of the more popular prop bets for the Super Bowl. While that’s enough to scare me off that market, at +350 we’ll team him with Smith and hope to hit at least one of the two Philly pass-catchers, with the expected attention Brown should be getting from the Chiefs.
Isiah Pacheco: Anytime touchdown (+360, FanDuel)
What is HE doing here? - You, probably.
We’ve cashed with Hunt in both Chiefs’ playoff games, but that was during the halcyon days when he and Isiah Pacheco were priced similarly. Now, the jig is up, and Hunt’s odds have been cut down shorter than +150. In turn, Pacheco can be had for +360, and that’s juicy enough for me to take a shot on a player who’s going to get 5+ carries and also capable of catching the ball out of the backfield. You never what you’ll get with Andy Reid and a switch to Pacheco near the goal line isn’t out of the question.
Noah Gray: Anytime touchdown (+550, FanDuel)
We weren’t going to leave Gray off the card. For better or worse, he’s been a favorite of ours in this space all season, even if his big games didn’t always time up with primetime previews. His development as a potential replacement for Kelce has been evident throughout the season, and he outscored his more famous teammate 5-3. With Zach Ertz’s 11 catches (and 14 for all Commanders’ tight ends) in the NFC Championship, the Eagles have allowed 28 receptions to opposing tight ends. That buttresses our play on Gray for over 1.5 receptions, and also makes him worth a bet to score as well.
Justin Watson: Anytime touchdown (+1200, FanDuel)
Jahan Dotson: Anytime touchdown (+1400, FanDuel)
Another postseason, another success in finding enough long shots to score, helping make betting on touchdowns profitable here at THE WINDOW. Winning tickets with Van Jefferson, Ty Johnson, Colby Parkinson, and Mack Hollins have all fallen under the category of “If they’re on the field, they can score” and that’s why Justin Watson and Dotson are each worth a half-unit, even if there’s a good chance they never see the ball sent their way.
At 112 snaps but just one target this postseason, admittedly, Dotson’s a cardio king. Meanwhile, Watson hasn’t seen the same volume of on-field action but hauling in a crucial 2-point conversion against the Bills means he’s still involved near the end zone.
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