NFL Schedule Release: How the Week 1 and lookahead lines are made
Comparing available point spreads to those built on estimated market ratings
Just over two weeks ago, we looked at “Step 1” when it comes to understanding the betting market for NFL teams: Taking their regular-season win (RSW) totals and converting them into an easy-to-understand team rating out of 100.
Knowing every team’s opponents for the 2025-‘26 season allowed oddsmakers to assign a win total for each team, but until Wednesday (and the various dribbles and drabs of schedule leakage), we didn’t know when.
Well, now we know whose playing in primetime, internationally, on holidays, or as the ninth-best game on a Sunday at 1pm ET when there’s only two games at 4pm, and therefore, oddsmakers can set the look-(way)-ahead lines for as many games as they want.
Since the post-Draft excitement, there’s been one major event that’s changed the fortunes of a NFL team - Derek Carr’s semi-abrupt retirement. While the Saints’ hopes for the playoffs might have been slim with Carr, New Orleans went from a win total lined at 6.5 (+100 to the over) to 5.5 (-115) after that news.
Yes, that changes the way the market should view the Saints, but it also tweaks every prospective point spread for Saints games this season.
Lastly, the NFL schedule release allows for some tweaks to each team’s rating thanks to strength of schedule (using their opponents’ regular-season win total as the frame of reference for their strength).
NFL Team Ratings
To use these ratings and convert them into a point spread, we first have to estimate what a maximum possible point spread would be. For our purposes we use -27 as the number, should the worst NFL team ever play the best NFL team ever (based on point spreads in massive mismatches of year’s past), the line would likely max out around four touchdowns (since it is pro football, after all).
For example:
At 70/100, the Chiefs are worth 18.9 points, while the Saints (31/100) are worth 8.4
If they met on a neutral field in Week 1, the Chiefs would be -10.5 (18.9-8.4)
Week 1 point spreads
Let’s take a look at how using that formula compares to the actual widely available lines for Week 1:
Interestingly, the betting market likes the Cowboys more in a matchup with the Eagles, as this game’s lined just under a touchdown despite it being a matchup of projected 7.5-win team at a projected 11.5-win team.
Indianapolis might be getting a little more credit for being at home than we’d expect, while the Jaguars (and their notoriously minimal home-field advantage) aren’t getting much.
The Giants aren’t getting much love in the RSW markets, but a line of +7 is showing some respect. That might be due to the expectation that they’ll have a veteran quarterback at the helm in Week 1, whereas there’s a strong possibility they’ll have turned to rookie Jaxson Dart for some growing pains at some point midway through the season, and their week-to-week rating goes down in the name of future development.
The Bengals should probably be bigger favorites against the Browns, but Cleveland’s had some success against their state rival in recent years, and more importantly, Week 1’s been a disaster for Cincinnati in this current era. So, buying the Bengals on “value” is scarier than virtually any other week.
There are two big differences in the late-afternoon window of Week 1:
The Broncos are the 10th-highest rated team by our win total methodology, and the Titans (2nd-last) will be starting a rookie quarterback on the road. Yet, the line is shorter than our projection.
You have to pay a bigger price to take the over on 9.5 wins on the Rams than you do the Texans, and L.A.’s NFC West schedule is tougher than the usual cupcake-fest in the AFC South, but the Rams are lined under a field goal against the Texans.
The market for the big game of Week 1 - Baltimore @ Buffalo - looks a lot like their Divisional Round matchup in January, where two evenly-matched teams are separated only by home-field advantage in Orchard Park.
On Monday night, the Vikings visit the Bears, but as of Thursday, Chicago was a slight favorite at DraftKings and Bet365, while FanDuel leaned towards Minnesota.
I’m sure, almost four months from now, the market will have decided one way or another.
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