NFL Week 13: Best bets for Sunday
Texans’ 2-step of value, a pair of Pennsylvania polkas, and a New York slow-dance
Matt Russell is the creator of THE WINDOW, and former lead betting analyst at theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. You can find him @mrussauthentic on X.
Whether you attribute your aggressive holiday sweats to a hearty Thanksgiving dinner or the heat produced from the bevy of tickets brought forth by THE WINDOW’s Thanksgiving Football Betting Spectacular, there’s still a full slate of Sunday games in the NFL, and therefore more bets to be made. Hardly a case of leftovers.
Underdogs bet against the spread via the Week 13 RUMP:
Cardinals +3.5
Titans +6
Patriots +3
Panthers +6
49ers +7Texans @ Jaguars (+3.5, 44)
With Trevor Lawrence returning this week, the Jaguars’ rating has ticked back up, dropping the line for this game against the Texans. Before the shoulder injury to the Jags’ star quarterback, Jacksonville had fallen to a 40/100 in our estimated market ratings (dropping to 29/100 with Mac Jones at the helm). With this line down to -3.5 they’re almost back up to that level.
However, when last we saw the Jags with Lawrence, they were getting out-gained by the Eagles 447-215, had just lost Christian Kirk for the season and traded starting left tackle Cam Robinson. More importantly, Lawrence is likely not coming back to be a two-way star, meaning he’s of little use to a defense that gives up the most yards per play in the NFL. Meanwhile, they just gave up seven straight touchdowns and a field goal in their eight total defensive possessions in Detroit.
Doug Pederson survived the bye week, so nothing’s changed regarding pure vibes in the locker room, and the writing is on the wall for this regime - a bad sign for effort levels.
Jacksonville can’t cover opponents in man-advantage, which is problematic for a team that plays that coverage almost exclusively. With a deep stable of pass-catchers, Texans’ offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik should set up CJ Stroud with more than a few matchups to take advantage of. Meanwhile, the Texans’ pass-rushers should have free rein of the line of scrimmage to get to Lawrence.
Pick: Texans (-3.5)
Steelers @ Bengals (-3, 47.5)
What are the Bengals going to have fixed coming out of their bye week?
The offense has been lethal recently, but when it comes to winning close games, they haven’t been able to finish off wins by either bleeding the clock or getting close enough so that Evan McPherson can actually make a field goal. As for the defense in crunch time? Yikes. Only three teams give up more fourth quarter points than Cincinnati.
But the market doesn’t care, as enough bets have come in to push this spread up to a full field goal, fading the Steelers off a game where we fully expected Pittsburgh to struggle in a spot they have historically.
After beating the Ravens, the Steelers were overrated going into Cleveland, but as 3-point underdogs here, they’re right back to being considered merely a league-average team.
The Steelers have shown that they’re the diametric opposite to the Bengals. You wonder how Cincinnati keeps losing these games, while being amazed that Pittsburgh continuously wins a close one each week.
The Steelers’ pass rush should be salivating at a pair of offensive with red Q’s next to their name, and the Bengals haven’t shown they’re more than Joe Burrow working around a poor offensive line and a lack of run game.
Maybe it doesn’t come down to a field goal for either side, and the Bengals win by margin, but we’re getting three points with a team comfortable in close games, and they don’t even have to win to cover.
Pick: Steelers (+3)
Eagles @ Ravens (-3, 51)
It’s not often you have the parallel circumstances of two Super Bowl contenders meeting, having just played a primetime game in Los Angeles, but the Eagles and Ravens both just won convincingly on the west coast.
The Ravens, as the perceived better team at home, are unsurprisingly a field goal favorite, but with Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry the key figures, this game is going to be decided by which team is able to impose their will in the trenches.
Barkley’s a viable MVP candidate, attempting to overcome the modern bias against the running back’s relative worth compared to the quarterback position, but the Eagles’ offensive line has been equally dominant. While the Ravens boast the fewest rushing yards allowed per carry in the NFL, Philadelphia’s plan this season is to wear down the opponent’s defensive front, and the Ravens have allowed even more fourth-quarter points than the Bengals, suggesting a tendency that they tire late. Meanwhile, Baltimore struggles to prevent the explosive pass play, something the Eagles can exploit.
Defensively, it’s the Eagles that have ascended to the top of the league in yards per play allowed, so we’re getting a field goal with a team with the better defense and an extra day of rest, with a negligible amount of travel for this road trip.
Pick: Eagles (+3)
Best bet on Substack: If you’re a football nerd who just likes learning more about the X’s and O’s - play-calling and defensive strategy. is a good follow just for defensive coverage clips, and seeing what teams are trying to do to accentuate their strengths or hide their flaws.
By-the-numbers bet (6-6):
Where possible, we’ll include a bet on a point spread that’s gotten away from our scope of expectation, but where I don’t have a viable on-field case for a bet.
Falcons (+1.5, -112 at FanDuel) over Chargers
The Falcons are getting crushed in the betting market for getting soundly beaten at Denver in their last time out. Meanwhile, there seems to be little reaction to the Chargers being outscored 51-33 since taking a lead into halftime against the Bengals two weeks ago. Now Los Angeles goes back on the road for the first time since November 3rd, and won’t have JK Dobbins, who’s been the key to a balanced attack.
The line has crept down towards pick’em, so we’ll see if the line flips, since this would be the first time all season that the Falcons wouldn’t be expected to be a home favorite in a matchup with the Chargers.
Teaser of the week (4-7):
Patriots +8.5 / Saints +8.5 (6-point teaser, -120 at Bet365)
The Patriots are no longer getting a full field goal, but you can capture all the key numbers with a teaser for both New England and the Saints - also short home underdogs.
The Colts haven’t won a game by more than six points all season, and the only time the Rams have, they needed a missed face mask penalty against the Vikings to push an 8-point lead to a 10-point win.
Total of the week (6-5-1):
Seahawks @ Jets: Under 42.5 total points (-115 at FanDuel)
We’ve been stumping for the Seahawks’ defense for a few weeks now, as it’s clear that Mike Macdonald’s aggressively making changes to both personnel and scheme, while also getting healthier compared to early in the season when they were thin up front and misaligned in the back. It’s the smallest of sample sizes, but allowing just 17 points at San Francisco, then just six against the Cardinals, is exactly what we hoped to see.
Will Aaron Rodgers finally start throwing deep successfully against the Seahawks? Or can the Jets take advantage of whatever remaining run-stopping issues Seattle has from early in the season? There’s no reason to believe either is probable.
So why not just take the Seahawks to win? Coming off those back-to-back divisional wins and then going cross-country to take on any team, off a bye, who’s being rated at their low point this season, is not usually a profitable scenario. Asking Seattle for an upper-range performance is one thing, but once thought to be an “over” waiting to happen, the last five Seahawks’ game have stayed under the total.
Oh, think twice. ‘Cause it’s another day for you and me in paradise.