NHL Betting: Goaltenders that matter
Why there are fewer goalies to rely on come playoff time than we think
Goaltending is the wrench that throws every NHL game, series, and even season out of whack.
You can almost list on one hand the number of goaltenders that we came into the season relying on to be a star for their team. In fact, let’s try to do it, here’s a list of goalies whom you would have felt almost certain about getting good play from, because of their history of consistency:
Connor Hellebuyck (Jets)
Andrei Vasilevskiy (Lightning)
Sergei Bobrovsky (Panthers)
Ilya Sorokin (Islanders)
Igor Shesterkin (Rangers)
Juuse Saros (Predators)
That’s the list.
The Senators had high hopes for Linus Ullmark, but he lost his job to Jeremy Swayman last year. Meanwhile, one good season from Swayman isn’t enough to include him on the list, and, sure enough, he’s 42nd in Goals Against Average this season. The Canucks have evidently flipped, signing Kevin Lankinen to a long-term deal with frustration over Thatcher Demko’s ability to stay healthy.
The Devils and Stars felt good about Jacob Markstrom and Jake Oettinger, but more proven goaltenders than them have seen things slip in the past. In fact, in our list above, Saros is that player this season. Shesterkin had half a rough season last year, and Bobrovsky was unplayable in the 2022-‘23 season (much like his first year in Florida). Meanwhile, Hellebuyck is still unproven come playoff time.
Goaltender Advanced Metrics (as of 3/6/25)
The column on the far right is the key metric in goaltending - GSAx (Goals Saved Above Expected). How many goals are you saving that an average goalie wouldn’t.
The former Golden Knight, Logan Thompson, is right underneath Hellebuyck this season, but Charlie Lindgren (after finishing last season strong) was the incumbent No. 1 for the Capitals.
The Flames moved on from Markstrom, so they could split their goaltending duties between Dan Vladar and Dustin Wolf for half the money. It’s one of the most underrated decisions of last offseason as Calgary is surprisingly in playoff contention.
The first-place Maple Leafs have started four different goaltenders, and current confidence seems highest on… Anthony Stolarz.
There are many more examples, but the point is that most teams are just sort of hoping to find a goaltender having THAT year, versus finding THAT goalie for many years. The latter requires a sizeable chunk of the team’s payroll with little guarantee for a return. If you don’t pay a goaltender, it’s easy to move on from them when it’s not happening that season.
Goaltenders that matter in 2025
Last week, we looked at who the skaters are that move the market when they’re not in the lineup, with the “4% Club”. The trouble with goaltenders, is that there’s such a lack of certainty about who the better goaltender is on a team, on any given day. In most cases, there’s little reason to significantly adjust a team’s win probability when the No. 1 is out. For example, Jets’ backup, Eric Comrie has saved 1% fewer shots on goal than Hellebuyck this season, or somewhere in between a 0.25 and 0.33 goals per game. You don’t want to have Comrie playing 60 games, but 22 of them, fully-rested, is fine.
Sorokin has Varlamov (when healthy), and an overworked Saros has seen his numbers slip to the point where, if the backup plays, there’s no change to the Predators’ power rating, but the best example is with the defending Stanley Cup Champions.
Stolarz was Bobrovsky’s backup last season, playing well enough to get a legitimate shot with the Maple Leafs this season. Bobrovsky’s replacement this year - Spencer Knight - matched Bobrovsky’s GAA and save percentage almost exactly, enabling the Panthers to deal Knight to the Blackhawks for Seth Jones. Bobrovsky’s the rock, but a missed game or two hasn’t change their calculus for winning on average.
The only team in the NHL with both a rock-solid goaltender and a large drop to the backup is the Lightning, as has been the case for years. Vasilevskiy has a +23.71 GSAx compared to Jonas Johansson’s -1.16.
As we look forward to the Stanley Cup Playoffs, if we put together a group of goaltenders who are having THAT season, then curate that list with teams who are currently in a playoff spot, and remove the goalies whose teams may survive without them, here’s how that would look:
Connor Hellebuyck
Andrei Vasilevskiy
Igor Shesterkin
Jake Oettinger
Adin Hill
Darcy Kuemper
Mackenzie Blackwood
While included above, the Kings’ Kuemper is 34 years old and is on his sixth NHL team, so while he’s had a good season, you’re not betting on L.A. because of him.
Blackwood was having a thoroughly mediocre season with the Sharks (.911 SV%, 3.00 GAA) before being dealt to the Avalanche. Colorado’s spent the last decade putting in replacement-level goalies between the pipes and hoping for the best. Sometimes it works, and sometimes it doesn’t.
Lindgren’s been above-average this season, so if Thompson’s play fell off, we can’t rule out Lindgren stepping back into the No. 1 role and having success.
Even Shesterkin, with his almost mythological playoff resume, is a debatable inclusion since he’s backed up by Stanley-Cup winner Jonathan Quick (once one of the best goaltenders in the NHL), who briefly wrestled away the starter’s responsibilities in New York during the regular season last year.
That leaves four or five total goaltenders that we need to be aware of as reliable difference-makers for the upcoming playoffs, which is probably much fewer than most would expect as they tend to get caught up in who’s hot in the crease right now.
Missed some of THE WINDOW’s hockey betting analysis this season?
Check out previous articles on how to bet hockey and the 2024-‘25 season:
< How to bet hockey moneylines >
< 2024-‘25 NHL Power Ratings >
< What is home-ice advantage worth? >
< The “4% Club” >NHL Betting Guide (Mar. 7-10)
This is the moneyline betting guide for upcoming games in the NHL. The two columns on the far right are the target moneylines for a bet on either team should you be interested in backing one side or the other. For a better understanding on how moneyline betting works in the NHL, click here.
Moneyline projections are not built reflecting day-to-day injuries to such meaningful players as: Brad Marchand, Charlie McAvoy, Quinn Hughes, Shea Theodore, Roman Josi, Adam Fox, Jack Hughes, and Dougie Hamilton.
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