NHL Betting: The “4% Club”
Who are the most valuable players in the NHL by the betting market
Connor McDavid has never been less valuable.
While that sounds like a hot take, and something surprising coming from someone who wrote this and this (predicting the possibility of McDavid winning the Stanley Cup Playoff MVP even in a losing cause).
Not to mention this as far back as 2021: “… I think there’s a universe in which the McDavid-led Oilers get to the Final, don’t win, and he still wins the Conn Smythe thanks to ungodly numbers built up over three rounds, and in a losing cause to a quality team with tons of depth, and no clear-cut MVP.”
In the betting world, value is measured in your absence - how likely is your team to win a given game with you compared to how likely they are to win with you in the lineup. We estimate this by measuring the difference between an implied win probability (IWP), as revealed in a matchup’s moneyline, with or without a key player.
One year ago, I wrote the second instalment of a concept I dubbed the “4% Club” - a list of NHL players that, when they’re out of the lineup, their team’s win probability/moneyline shifts by 4% or more in the betting market, compared to what it would otherwise be.
For example, last season, if the Oilers (at full strength) would be -200 (66% IWP) to beat their opponent without McDavid, the market would shift the odds by as high as 12%, to 54% or -118. If they were projected to be a small favorite of -120, they would become a +135 underdog, and so on.
With all due respect to Auston Matthews and his Hart Trophy-winning 2023-24 season, at 12%, McDavid was the most valuable player in the betting market last year. That had been the case for many years, as the clear-cut best player on the Oilers, if not the league.
This season, however, McDavid has missed six games, and I’ve estimated “only” an 8% shift against the Oilers’ expected win probability in the betting market. The simple reason - an improved roster in Edmonton, with Leon Draisaitl taking his production to another level as a Hart candidate this season. It’s the same concept that hurt Matthews’ value - his team is too good and they still have a good chance of winning without him.
So, who is the most valuable player in the NHL by the betting market, and who moves the needle when they’re unavailable?
The “4% Club”
In our weekly moneyline guide, bettors can take the projections and apply these player-centric win probability adjustments to a matchup, should a player with a day-to-day injury be ruled out. McDavid’s Team Canada teammate, Nathan MacKinnon, was second on our list last year. Having played all 60 games for the Avalanche this season, MacKinnon’s 10% valuation remains the same by default, with McDavid falling underneath.
Meeting McDavid at 8% is Quinn Hughes of the Canucks. Last season’s Norris Trophy winner is also the Vancouver’s leading scorer by a significant margin despite missing 10 games this season. Cale Makar is right there with Hughes as the best defencemen in the league, but with MacKinnon on his Avalanche team, Colorado can still thrive without Makar, while the Canucks have struggled without Hughes.
The Blackhawks are second to only the Sharks at the bottom of the NHL, so a win is never likely, but without Connor Bedard, Chicago has significantly less chance of doing so. The Sharks can only hope to be in a similar situation with last year’s No. 1 pick, Macklin Celebrini.
Draisaitl and Nikita Kucherov are chasing MacKinnon (the betting favorite) for the Hart, and like the Avs’ captain, they also have high-value running mates (McDavid and Victor Hedman).
If your team doesn’t have a player on this list, it’s either really good news or really bad.
The Jets, Kings and Capitals don’t have any skaters whose absence hurts their team significantly because they are so deep. For example, the big hockey story down the stretch will be Alexander Ovechkin’s chase for Wayne Gretzky’s career goal record, but when Ovechkin missed time with a broken leg, the Capitals barely skipped a beat.
In turn, a team like the Islanders, Kraken or Canadiens don’t have a great record or a market-altering star.
Similarly, a handful of teams only have one representative on the list, but they can be anywhere from contenders like the Stars and Hurricanes, who have one player slightly above a group who make a smaller impact on the market, to also-rans like the Senators, Red Wings, Sabres, Flames, Flyers, Blue Jackets, Utah Hockey Club, Blues and Wild. Minnesota is the lone franchise to have to spend a significant portion of their season without their star, Kirill Kaprizov.
Matthews’ market value has been hurt by how well the Maple Leafs have done this season without him - while injured and during a sub-standard season for Toronto’s captain. A supporting cast that’s gotten quality seasons from Mitch Marner, William Nylander, John Tavares, and Matthew Knies, has taken the pressure off of Matthews, limiting his importance. If Matthews was traded to any of the teams previously listed, his value would probably almost double, relative to his new teammates.
It’s important to understand who matters during the regular season, but as we approach the Stanley Cup Playoffs, it’s critical to have an understanding of who’s relevant to the moneyline should there be any absences or if certain players are carrying injuries into the postseason.
Missed some of THE WINDOW’s hockey betting analysis this season?
Check out previous articles on how to bet hockey, and the 2024-‘25 season:
< How to bet hockey moneylines >
< 2024-‘25 NHL Power Ratings >
< What is home-ice advantage worth? > NHL Betting Guide (Feb. 28-Mar. 3)
This is the moneyline betting guide for upcoming games in the NHL. The two columns on the far right are the target moneylines for a bet on either team should you be interested in backing one side or the other. For a better understanding on how moneyline betting works in the NHL, click here.
Moneyline projections are not built reflecting day-to-day injuries to such meaningful players as: William Nylander, Charlie McAvoy, Adam Fox, Roman Josi, Drew Doughty, Matthew Tkachuk, Brady Tkachuk, and Shea Theodore.
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