Stanley Cup Final in-series betting update
The Oilers face desperate times for the first time in over a month
From mid-April through late-May, we’ve grown accustomed to a certain lifestyle.
Like the sports fan’s version of Parker Posey’s character “Victoria Ratliff” in the most recent season of White Lotus.
Hockey (and basketball) games every night. Sometimes two at a time.
Then, once it’s time for the finale, it’s like a commercial-free HBO experience gets loaded with ad breaks, in the form of two full days off between games. Even without the need for the epic travel day between Nothern Alberta and South Florida.
We’re powerless to fast forward, even if all we want to do is get to Game 4 as quickly as humanly possible.
Regardless of the reason for it, this extra day of rest after Game 3 gives everyone a chance to collect themselves mid-series, buying bettors an extra day to try to figure out not just which team has been collectively better so far, but by how much.
For more on the in-series outlook for the Conference Finals, check out Tuesday’s episode of THE WINDOW podcast.
Stanley Cup Final: Oilers (+215) vs. Panthers (-250)
< Panthers lead 2-1 >
Game 4 (June 12)
Series preview keys
There’s a congruency of the Oilers’ skaters being slightly better than the Panthers during the regular season, then both teams improving in the postseason, but doing so equally, so that the Oilers’ skaters provide them a 51.7/48.3 advantage
Based solely on the numbers, the difference between the goaltenders is negligible. Since regaining his starting role, Stuart Skinner’s numbers are right there with the more accomplished Sergei Bobrovsky
Adding home-ice advantage for the Oilers, and our projection is Edmonton wins the series 56% of the time, which when converted from that implied win probability is -127 odds.
After opening -110 on each side, the Oilers were bet up through our projection to -130 leading up to the series.
Ticket held: Oilers to win (-120)
Even-strength metrics
Had there not been a little thing called “Panthers 6-1 in Game 3,” these numbers would look a lot more palatable after a pair of series-opening games that went deep into overtime.
By the way, it felt like 6-1 was an unusually common score this postseason (three times since Game 5 of Panthers-Leafs), but 6-2 has been the strangely prevalent blowout score this postseason, as it’s been the final five times.
For those of us looking for bigger picture answers, Game 3 was something of a waste of time. With so much special teams play in the first half of the game (just 8:45 of 5-on-5 play in the first period), and a lopsided score leading to typical nonsense in the third period, the even-strength numbers weren’t just surprisingly even (for a 6-1 game) but they were limited:
Through two periods, the Panthers generated 0.85 expected goals at even-strength to the Oilers’ 0.59. Florida led 4-1.
The reason for such a disparity isn’t complicated.
Unless you listen to the media members who, for reasons unknown to mankind, are desperate to prop up the Oilers’ starting goaltender despite watching him swim into the slot on Brad Marchand’s goal in the opening minutes.
In just over 43 minutes of play, Stuart Skinner allowed 2.62 goals more than an average NHL goaltender.
If you were searching for hope in the Oilers’ net, the good news is that a bad game from Skinner is figuratively “built into the models,” in that it’s something we can expect over the course of a best-of-seven series.
Essentially, we’ve signed up for three terrible games in exchange for four great ones.
Skinner’s history is that he can bounce back, and often plays well in the latter portion of series.
According to this article from Yardbarker.com, in his last six Game 4s, Skinner’s stopped 161 of 167 shots, and has a .922 save percentage in 21 Games 4-7, where the Oilers are 18-3.
Basically, Skinner’s move is to drive Oilers’ backers to drink early in series, only to keep the opponent at bay in time for Edmonton’s strength (scoring lots of goals) to come through more often than not.
It’s a precarious position, as we warned in the Stanley Cup Final preview, but if Skinner’s wild swings in play can continue to average out to modestly above-average numbers, there’s a good game coming. Even if that’s due to the Oilers’ locking down things defensively the way they did against Dallas.
Is there a bet?
Strictly speaking on “value,” our target price for betting the Oilers’ moneyline in Florida is +126 (per our preview).
While the Panthers (as high as -150) got more credit in the betting market for Game 3 than the Oilers did in either game in Edmonton, we didn’t quite see the Oilers’ odds get longer than +125.
Well, a 6-1 loss tends to change perception. Especially when the postgame talking point is about how the losing team became unhinged late.
As if it’s remotely unusual for a hockey team getting beaten soundly on the scoreboard to take out their frustrations in the name of “sending a message.”
Some sportsbooks are more willing to lean into an adjustment, with Pinnacle the high point (as of this writing) at +137, while widely popular shops like ESPNbet (+130) and FanDuel (+126) also offer a number above our prescribed threshold.
Game 4: Oilers (+126 or better)
Depending where you go shopping for your bets, maybe adding to a series-long position is a better option.
We know the market settled into Oilers -130 as the series price before Game 1, as Edmonton had home-ice advantage in a series between equally matched teams. Despite the score in Game 3, there’s been nothing to dissuade that opinion we also shared.
If the Oilers win Game 4, regaining home-ice advantage should put them back into the role of favorite.
Edmonton is widely available at +215 (31.7% implied win probability) to hoist the Stanley Cup, but a win likely moves them to -120 (54.5% IWP) as they’d regain home-ice advantage. With a 23% potential shift for just one game, now is the time to buy low on the Oilers, if you’re thinking more long-term.
Stanley Cup Final: Oilers (+215)
Conn Smythe Breakdown
Shortly after the Stanley Cup gets handed out, the Conn Smythe Award for the MVP of the playoffs will be awarded and it will potentially be an even more dramatic reveal as the champion itself.
We’ve been “secretly” looking at the Conn Smythe market on THE WINDOW Podcast throughout the playoffs, with an understanding of two things:
Every win - putting a team closer to winning the Stanley Cup (the first quasi-requirement for winning playoff MVP) - should shorten the odds for every player on the winning team (and lengthen the odds for those on the losing team).
Voters are most likely to take into account stats in a long-term way, but “eye-test” impact on the ice will leave a significant short-term impression. While early results are tangible, we have to remember that the games yet to be played might be more significant for voters.
Now that we’re down to two teams with between 2-4 games remaining (and knowing that Connor McDavid won’t match the 42 points he racked up to win the Conn Smythe in a losing cause), we know the MVP will be coming from the champion this year.
As far as handicapping the Conn Smythe market through the last few games, we can start with the series odds and work from there to assess value (in the same way we could with Stanley Cup odds at any other point during this postseason).
Oilers: +215 (31.7% implied probability)
Panthers: -250 (71.4% implied probability)
Conn Smythe contenders:
We’ve buried the lede, as the big story out of Game 3 was that Sam Bennett is now the favorite for the Conn Smythe.
This is particularly relevant since we’re holding tickets on Bennett to win at 95-1, from the May 22nd episode of THE WINDOW Podcast: “Stars overmatched? Say again?”:
Bennett scored his playoff-leading 14th goal (four clear of anyone else) in Game 3, leads the Panthers in points (20), and his team is two wins away from hoisting the Stanley Cup. The interesting question is whether he needs even one more goal to secure the award (pending a Panthers’ win).
The current odds provide a good example of how the closer a team is to winning the Stanley Cup, the closer a player contending for the award is to winning it.
Below are the top four contenders for the Conn Smythe, their best available odds to win it, and the implied win probability gap between those odds and the odds for their team to win the Cup:
*The sportsbook’s have a 4.64% hold (or profit) on bets for just the top four candidates, indicating that where they’re finding their biggest profit margin is in the longer shots.
The glaring number is that the difference between McDavid winning the Conn Smythe and the Oilers winning the Stanley Cup is minimal.
It’s hard to imagine a world where Leon Draisaitl is THAT good in the remaining four games, without any help from the Oilers’ superstar captain. If Draisaitl’s odds were reflective of that 2.33% gap (around 40-1), then he’d be worth taking a chance on, but at +1200, he’s not.
In lieu of an Oilers’ in-series bet, you could try to squeeze a little more out of the lemon by betting McDavid at +240 instead of Edmonton +215, but that marginal boost in profit isn’t worth sweating out Gary Bettman’s announcement.
Especially if, somehow, Bennett scores a few MORE goals, and pulls a McDavid - winning the Conn Smythe in a losing cause… Hey, a guy can dream.
Marchand’s peskiness on the ice is manifesting in his creeping contention for the Conn Smythe, but Bennett is six goals and two points clear of Marchand. If Marchand can make up that ground, we’ll tip our cap.
Lastly, if there was an appetite for Bobrovsky as the MVP of the playoffs, there’d likely be more talk about his play already. Given our respect (and hope) for the Oilers’ ability to get at least 1-2 more wins, passing on Bob’ assumes Edmonton will score enough in the next two games to keep Bobrovsky buzz at bay.
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