Stanley Cup Playoffs betting: Blues-Jets series preview
Binnington and Hellebuyck are the focus of a high-profile goalie rematch
In a perfect world, a 15-1 start, and, essentially, a wire-to-wire President’s Trophy campaign would give the Jets some massive advantage heading into the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Unfortunately for Winnipeg, this is the NHL.
Unlike the NBA, not only are all the playoff teams capable of winning a 7-game series against anyone, qualifying for the postseason often means a team has been successfully playing “playoff hockey” - a different brand of the sport - for quite some time now.
The NHL has a history of epic first-round upsets. So much so, that series odds no longer stretch out to 3-to-1 and beyond. There always seems to be something to like about a Wild Card team.
In the case of the Blues, they have their own hot streak to brag about, which begs the curiosity - theoretically-speaking, what’s more relevant as we get into late April?
A 15-1 start, and a second big winning streak bisected by the midseason break
- Or -
An 18-3 run from late-February to early-April to blow past the other playoff hopefuls
The first sets you up among the top teams in the league early, but the latter means you’ve found an extended stretch of excellence just in the nick of time.
If this sounds familiar, fans of both the Jets and Blues recall 2018-‘19, when Winnipeg started a strong, but more modest 22-11, only to see St. Louis go from last in the league to a first round matchup with the Jets, and, eventually, a Stanley Cup.
Of course, there’s also the possibility that this year’s Blues’ streak to the playoffs took a lot out of them, and the three losses in the final week of the season interrupted their momentum.
The inside scoop
Whether you can find them on Substack, or elsewhere, here’s a take or stat from a member of the media that’s followed each team closely, about what will make-or-break their chances in the playoffs.
The Blues:
“In the 51 games since being traded from Anaheim to St. Louis, Cam Fowler has been on the ice for 56 Blues’ goals at 5v5. No other defenseman has been on the ice for more goals for since, and the Blues are +23 with Fowler on the ice at 5v5, per naturalstattrick.com.”
- Tweeted by Matthew DeFranks, Blues writer for The St. Louis Post-Dispatch
The Jets:
“The biggest X-factor is whether the Jets can play with the structure that got them the President’s Trophy. Last year’s Winnipeg regular season had similar results, but when the playoffs began, their game fell apart and they were overwhelmed by Colorado’s attack. Many will point to Hellebuyck’s numbers, but the team allowed so many high-danger chances and odd-man rushes, anyone who watched the games would say it wasn’t on him.”
- Michael Remis, Winnipeg Sports Talk
THE WINDOW’s Skaters Rating
ES HDC%: Even-strength high-danger chance share
ES XG%: Even strength expected goal share
SNIPES%: (ES HD Goals + Power-play goals) / (ES HDG + ES PP Opp)
RATING: Above (+) or Below (-) league average
NEUTRAL WIN%: Probability of winning on neutral ice
IWP: Implied win probability (from a moneyline)For a “best team in the regular season,” the Jets’ metrics at even-strength are merely “OK”, which is the reason the betting market never fully came around on the team with the 15th-highest projected regular-season point total from before the season. Despite being atop the standings, the Jets were mostly rated as 15% above an average team, still below the top tier (Oilers, Avalanche, Hurricanes, Panthers, etc.).
The first of two reasons as to why Winnipeg was able to prove more valuable than their rating was a 17.3% SNIPES efficiency (22% above league average).
During their hot start, the Jets converted 15.3% of their even-strength high-danger chances (league average: 11.8%). Since then, the Jets converted a more sensible 12.9%. Meanwhile, Winnipeg’s 29.4% efficiency on the power play led the NHL. That unit may be without Gabe Vilardi and Nik Ehlers, at least for the start of the series.
Of course, the Blues late-season run came with its own unsustainable conversion rates, as St. Louis converted 18.6% of their HDC at even strength. Given they averaged 14.8% for the season, it goes to show just how bad they were at shooting the puck into the net before the break for the 4 Nations Face-off.
Luckily for St. Louis, their power play (a method of opportunity often minimized in the postseason) has never been a strength, at 18th in the league.
Goaltender Effects
We take into account of how the presumed starting goaltenders are playing coming into the postseason, estimating how much win probability will shift based on recent form. To be safe, we adjust that estimated win probability 25% towards the mean.
Oh, the other element that helped the Jets out-run the betting market’s modest rating? Hart trophy candidate Connor Hellebuyck, who’ve we discussed here, and here, earlier this season.
When we first evaluated the season the Jets’ goaltender was having, Hellebuyck was up to 0.84 GSAx/60. Post-break, Hellebuyck cooled off some, while the Blues’ Jordan Binnington has tightened a gap that was considered pretty big before the 4 Nations tournament.
Oh yeah, THAT!
Before the event, Canada (the nation, not the team) was concerned about Binnington’s ability to backstop the country to more international glory. As it’s not in their job description, neither goaltender shot a puck at the other, but Binnington and Hellebuyck did metaphorically match up in the peak-intensity games.
Ironically, they’ll look down the ice at each other again, but this time (whether or not coming through in the Final catapulted him to his strong finish) Binnington could easily be seen as Hellebuyck’s equal. Especially, since he’s got the Stanley Cup ring, while Hellebuyck’s averaged -0.81 GSAx in two 5-game series losses over the past two seasons.
How to bet Blues-Jets
If we’re trying to hypothesize which team’s shooters will get hot at the level of their respective winning streaks, that would largely be a guess with a slight lean to the Jets because of the volume of opportunity they create at even-strength and their power-play efficiency.
If we’re trying to guess which team’s star goaltender will out-perform the other, again, your lean depends on whether Binnington’s experience under extreme pressure makes up for Hellebuyck’s season-long form.
However, with DraftKings at Jets -180 and FanDuel at Blues +185, there’s a synthetic positive hold, and an implied win probability in the odds of roughly 65%/35%. Is that a ratio reflective of the two questions above?
Mix in our projection of 61.2% for a Jets’ series win, and there’s a slight edge in backing the underdog outright.
From there, it’s just a matter of risk tolerance - are you willing to take a flier with a bet that, percentage-wise, is likely to lose? If not, there’s value in betting on St. Louis in other series derivatives.
Our projections that make the Blues 38.8% to upset the Jets also make them 56.7% to at least force a Game 7 in Winnipeg. With St. Louis available at -115 (53.5% implied win probability) in the series spread market at +1.5 games, there’s a 3.1% edge on backing the Blues.
While it’s not quite as valuable as a series bet at +185 (3.7% edge), at least it’s more likely to win, and not potentially reliant on winning a Game 7 on the road in Winnipeg.
Series bet: Blues +1.5 games (-115, FanDuel)
Game moneyline target prices:
Game 1/2/5/7: St. Louis (+165 or better)
Game 3/4/6: St. Louis (+110 or better)
Leading goal-scorer prop: Alex Iafallo (+2500)
Criteria:
1) Looking for a hot-scorer
2) Featured on the PP
3) Reason he’s underrated in the marketThis is a long-shot flyer predicated on two circumstances particular to this series:
Good goaltenders on each side should mean less goals over the course of the series than the standard average, and therefore fewer goals needed to lead the series.
As Remis clarified for me when I connected with him, Alex Iafallo would sub into Vilardi’s role in front of the net on the power play.
Iafallo had six power-play goals despite spending most of the season on the second unit, and only Kyle Conner had more goals since the break. Add in some extra time next to Conner and Mark Scheifele on the first line, and it’s worth a shot that Iafallo can score 3-4 goals, which might be enough to lead in the small sample size of a playoff series.
Quick reminder:
As we venture forward at THE WINDOW, please acknowledge that you’ve found value in this content by liking (❤️) and/or restacking (🔄).
It will help others on Substack find THE WINDOW. “When I get it right, great! I want you to be able to see my work and understand how I got there, when I don’t.”