Stanley Cup Playoffs betting: Canadiens-Capitals series preview
Is it possible to be ready for a big surprise?
It got a little dicey there for a minute, but the Canadiens got the win (well, point) they needed to secure the final playoff spot in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, getting the benefit of facing Carolina well after their regular season business had been completed.
A scenario so much better than Montreal might have imagined when they first looked at the schedule to see who they were facing in Game 82.
While La Belle Province was a flutter about the young Habs capturing their imagination about getting into the playoffs and potentially causing a disturbance as an underdog, the Capitals’ fanbase cared about just one thing down the stretch:
Alex Ovechkin goals!!!
Either way, good times were had the last few weeks in both locales.
Now that the accomplishments have been secured, it’s time to get serious in D.C. (not the district’s specialty these days), while Montreal - the capital of hockey - has been in the cliche mode of playing playoff hockey for weeks now.
If that qualitative theorizing isn’t for you, there’s some quantitative measurements that explain A) why the Caps are significant favorites, and B) why they might be in trouble.
The inside scoop
Whether you can find them on Substack, or elsewhere, here’s a take from a member of the media that’s followed each team closely, about what will make-or-break their chances in the playoffs.
The Canadiens:
“The Canadiens have one of the league’s most effective top lines, a strong, balanced, veteran third line and the fourth is a formidable checking line that’s earned Marty St. Louis’ trust. But if the Habs are going to spring the upset in what should be a high-scoring series, they’re going to need the second line to step up.
The brilliance of Ivan Demidov was on full display in his late-season cameo, but as dynamic as he is, the 19-year-old can’t be relied upon to do it on his own. Patrik Laine isn’t going to be that guy. The Finn has been a black hole at five-on-five and is quickly losing the trust of St. Louis. That leaves us with Alex Newhook. The former first-round pick has had a muted season offensively, but suddenly finds himself in the best situation he’s been in all season, to thrive alongside an elite playmaker in Demidov. The pair were quick to produce in their first game together, but Newhook also squandered a number of high-danger chances the teenager put on his tape. If Newhook can find his finishing touch, the Canadiens will give the Caps and their suddenly fragile goaltending situation a real scare.”
- Alex Moretto, Edge Work
The Capitals:
“The Capitals are also likely to be without two major pieces entering this series, as No. 1 goaltender Logan Thompson and Aliaksei Protas are expected to miss the first few games, though their statuses are fairly uncertain which adds to the idea that this team is pretty volatile right now.”
- Nick Martin, Daily Faceoff
THE WINDOW’s Skaters Rating
ES HDC%: Even-strength high-danger chance share
ES XG%: Even strength expected goal share
SNIPES%: (ES HD Goals + Power-play goals) / (ES HDG + ES PP Opp)
RATING: Above (+) or Below (-) league average
NEUTRAL WIN%: Probability of winning on neutral ice
IWP: Implied win probability (from a moneyline)With a prescribed regular-season point total of 89.5 (21st on the oddsboard), the Capitals were expected to be in a similar position to the Canadiens - just hoping to make the playoffs.
Winnipeg got out to the high-profile start, but Washington crept along in shouting distance - two teams that weren’t supposed to be this good. The main category to make that possible was in SNIPES% (our stat that measures scoring talent), with Ovechkin as the poster boy. The Caps 16.6% rate was behind only Winnipeg’s 17.3%. Add that to solid-if-not-spectacular even-strength play, and Washington was full value for a market rating that went from a couple percentage points below league-average to 10% above (but, like the Jets, never into the upper echelon of the NHL).
Speaking of the Jets, you could trace Montreal’s season back to a loss in Winnipeg. Not because a December 14th loss was a wake-up call, but because a close game against a good team came after giving up nine goals to Pittsburgh.
In the first 29 games, the Habs went 11-18 with even-strength ratios of 44% and 43%. So, while the numbers listed above (45.6% and 47.1%) don’t warrant a patented pregame ceremony at the Bell Centre, 48.6% and 46.7% from Dec. 14th on were an improvement, good enough for a 29-24 record the rest of the way.
Where we’ll express some concern is with Montreal’s 47.5% and 44.6% after the 4 Nations Face-off break. They didn’t manage a 15-11 record down the stretch because of an unsustainable high-danger conversion rate or a scorching-hot power play, either.
No, the Habs rode the back of hot goaltending.
Goaltender Effects
We take into account of how the presumed starting goaltenders are playing coming into the postseason, estimating how much win probability will shift based on recent form. To be safe, we adjust that estimated win probability 25% towards the mean.
How specific do we need to get with goaltending analytics?
Sometimes, setting a bar of expectation for each team’s goaltending needs to be somewhat exact for a series price valuation. Other times, like here - the only series where the goaltending advantage is in favor of the underdog, you just need to get a feel for it.
Sam Montembault’s post-break numbers speak for themselves. It’s prudent to remain skeptical of a goalie who’d never had a sub-3.00 goals-against average prior to this run, but in an effort to be UNspecific, we’ll blanket his recent play as “good.”
As we eluded to in discussing Jordan Binnington in the Blues-Jets preview, the nation of Canada was up in arms that the country’s best goaltender *at the time* was left off the roster for the 4 Nations (because it had to be set so far ahead of the tournament). That goaltender was Logan Thompson, and when the NHL took its hiatus, the Caps’ No.1 had a Hellebuyck-ian 0.83 GSAx/60 (another Jets comp!).
When we looked at the goaltenders to rely on in early March, we tip-toed around the idea that maybe the betting market shouldn’t swing on the availability of the still relatively-unproven Thompson.
Well, from the 4 Nations break onwards, Thompson’s been a below-average NHL goaltender.
That might have been injury-related, as Thompson’s sat out the last few weeks of the regular season. In his steed, Charlie Lindgren was just as ineffective (as we thought might be the case). Whether Thompson swoops in for the start in Game 1 or it’s Lindgren, there is no reason to believe our calculus should change. Either way, we’ll blanket the Caps’ recent goaltending as “bad.”
Using basic statements like “good” versus “bad” simplifies a stance that, even with an application of more than a 25% shift towards average play, goaltending makes up for some of the Capitals’ spreadsheet advantage when comparing the skaters’ efficiency.
How to bet Canadiens-Capitals
Ok, whoa!
If you read any number of the other seven series previews, you see that the formula for our team ratings creates projected series odds that are in the ballpark of the betting market’s.
Why are our numbers so close to 50/50? A 57.4/42.6 neutral-ice mismatch becomes a lot tighter with the strict application of the numbers. But, to answer our earlier question about how specific we need to get, let’s put it this way:
With the widest separation in comparing skaters, without ANY adjustment for goaltending, the Capitals would by 67.4% to win the series (-207/+207) once home-ice advantage is applied.
With DraftKings initially offering the Habs at +260 and Bet365 offering the Capitals at -260, having access to both popular sportsbooks creates what’s called a “synthetic hold,” in this case, of 0% (since the numbers are the same). Using two sportsbooks, we can imply that a fair guess for implied odds is 72.2%/27.8%.
Therefore, before we even start asking the questions about the effect goaltending has on this series, there’s already almost a 5% edge in favor of Montreal. Any further application of the reasonable expectation that Montembault saves his team more goals than whomever starts for the Capitals in net is a bonus that adds to the edge that already exists.
I don’t think Montreal is really as high as 48.6% likely to win this series, but whatever the probability I do believe in, it’s not in the low-30s either, making it my most-convicted upset pick of the first round.
Series bet: Canadiens to win (+250, DraftKings)
Note: If the Habs don’t get the goaltending advantage we expect, this series may be over quickly. Which is why going for the gusto with the outright upset is the route over +1.5 in the series spread market.
Game moneyline target prices:
Game 1/2/5/7: Montreal (+150 or better)
Game 3/4/6: Montreal (+100 or better)
Leading goal-scorer prop: Dylan Strome (+1000)
Criteria:
1) Looking for a hot-scorer
2) Featured on the PP
3) Reason he’s underrated in the marketYou can grab the rogue 30-1 price at DraftKings on 30-goal scorer/behemoth Aliaksei Protas (14-1 on Bet365) on the hopes he’s able to play in Game 1, or wait to see if oddsmakers sack up and offer Ivan Demidov at a big price (or both). For a more traditional option, a former third-overall pick comes into the postseason as the rare combination of hot and under-the-radar.
Ovechkin’s been hammering shots at opposing goalies for 20+ years, but especially the last 20+ games, going for the all-time scoring record. While he’s not shy of firing, 85 shots in 23 games is striking compared to 51 from his next-closest teammate, Connor McMichael (who didn’t have to worry about getting the puck to a linemate everyone came to see shoot).
Ovie racked up 16 goals since the break, but his center, Dylan Strome was second on the team with 10 goals, and he only needed 42 shots to score them. Now that the Caps are playing more of a team game - win by any means necessary, look for Strome to shoot more in the playoffs, especially with the increased attention defenders will give to the Great Eight in a do-or-die playoff series.
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