Stanley Cup Playoffs betting: Panthers-Lightning series preview
Leaning Lightning in what should be the East’s beast of a matchup
If Avs-Stars is the crown jewel of the first round because it features two teams lined in the top-3 in last summer’s regular-season points market, this is the Eastern Conference’s answer, since the Sunshine State Struggle (better than “Battle of” which was copied from Ontario’s previously dormant Ottawa-Toronto rivalry) will be played underneath more recent Stanley Cup banners.
The Panthers have even turned to deploying an almost-patented Lightning move from years’ past.
Tampa Bay snuck Nikita Kucherov into the 2021 Playoffs, circumventing the salary cap thanks to a long-term injury to their star that just happened to have him ready for the postseason. It was either great convenience or next-level thinking.
Likely a combination of both.
This season, Matthew Tkachuk, after going too hard too soon during the 4 Nations Face-off, missed the rest of the regular season, and Aaron Ekblad got suspended, conveniently opening up salary cap space for the Panthers to add Seth Jones and Brad Marchand. Now the playoffs are starting and we will be surprised if Tkachuk and Ekblad aren’t back in the mix very soon.
Before the season, the defending champions were lined at 102.5 regular-season points, but it was the Lightning that scared that number, as they didn’t miss a beat after swapping out long-time face of the franchise Steven Stamkos for 41 goals of Jake Guentzel.
Possibly relying on the coming reinforcements, Paul Maurice didn’t seem remotely interested in pushing the Panthers for home-ice advantage, let alone the Atlantic Division title. All of which adds up to some uncertainty about what to expect. Though, like the Avalanche and Stars, both teams have understandable championship goals.
The inside scoop
Whether you can find them on Substack, or elsewhere, here’s a take from a member of the media that’s followed each team closely, about what will make-or-break their chances in the playoffs.
The Panthers:
“Some of what happens to Florida hinges on whether Carter Verhaeghe snaps back into his standard playoff form. He spent the regular season on a cold streak, going from 34 goals to 20 despite similar underlying numbers. It’s certainly hard to believe they won’t get more from Marchand, who had four points in 10 games as he was getting acclimated. Sam Bennett might’ve just had the best offensive year of his career, scoring 25 goals and putting himself in position to score even more. Anton Lundell has become a highly competent third-line center and showed signs of meshing with Marchand down the stretch. Evan Rodrigues, once again, scored between 12 and 19 goals. Eetu Luostarinen has defensive value. That’s all quality depth.”
- Sean Gentille, Dom Luszczyszyn and Shayna Goldman, The Athletic
The Lightning:
“Would Tampa Bay have assembled its mini-dynasty without Yanni Gourde? Maybe, maybe not. Having him around, though, certainly made things easier. Now he’s back in Tampa Bay and, perhaps, set to start the playoffs on a line with Kucherov and Brayden Point. That’d be a surprise, but he’s been pretty good — third on the team in five-on-five points per 60 since they (re)acquired him from Seattle at the deadline. All but one of those are assists, but he’s been at least generating chances; his 0.96 individual scoring chances per 60 is more in that span than every Lightning forward outside of Kucherov and Nick Paul.”
- Sean Gentille, Dom Luszczyszyn and Shayna Goldman, The Athletic
THE WINDOW’s Skaters Rating
ES HDC%: Even-strength high-danger chance share
ES XG%: Even strength expected goal share
SNIPES%: (ES HD Goals + Power-play goals) / (ES HDG + ES PP Opp)
RATING: Above (+) or Below (-) league average
NEUTRAL WIN%: Probability of winning on neutral ice
IWP: Implied win probability (from a moneyline)Even without Tkachuk and Ekblad for an extended period of time this season, the Panthers created both Expected Goals (the fractional measurement of cumulative offensive pressure) and High-Danger Chances (the binary evaluation of a good scoring chance) at even strength. However, with Tkachuk sidelined, and both Sam Reinhart and Verhaeghe coming back to earth after massive career-high seasons in 2023-‘24, the Panthers’ SNIPES% dropped below league-average. Meanwhile, the Lightning’s skaters make up ground by sniping at their usual high rate.
In the end, the Panthers are likely the better team, but it’s not by much.
On the way to the Stanley Cup Final for a second straight year, the Panthers went from not being able to get over the Tampa Bay hump to scoring 20 goals in five games in the first round last year. The offensive success wasn’t because Andrei Vasilevskiy was particularly bad (0.2 GSAx), though 10 of 16 even-strength goals were scored on non-high-danger chances.
Tampa created 47 high-danger chances to Florida’s 51 last year, so with better luck given that small margin, they might have had the goods to go all the way yet again.
Goaltender Effects
We take into account of how the presumed starting goaltenders are playing coming into the postseason, estimating how much win probability will shift based on recent form. To be safe, we adjust that estimated win probability 25% towards the mean.
We might not need recent numbers to argue that Vasilevskiy and Sergei Bobrovsky are equally-likely to be awesome in this series. Just look at the trophy case for each, if need be.
Both teams’ overall rating goes up with these two still performing at a high-level, ticking up to roughly 17% better than an average NHL team when all three elements are factored in. Mix in some good branding (bettors not wanting to fade either proven squad) and you can see why they’re rated 20% above average in the market.
How to bet Panthers-Lightning
Fair odds of +100 on either side, or 50/50 when depicted in terms of implied win probability, should excite hockey fans ready to enjoy more fun in the Sun(shine State Struggle), but not incite a bet. Oddsmakers are throwing a coin in the air in the series market, with a minus in front of whichever team you want to bet on.
There are a few ways to play this series outside of picking a winner.
Picking one side to take down the other before a seventh game by playing a team to cover -1.5 games will get you a plus-money price. Three recent closely-played series have all avoided a seventh game, but our fair price for either side in those markets is +200, and there isn’t anywhere offering up odds that long.
The other option is to bite the bullet and lay odds on the +1.5 side (at better than -200) of the series spread.
The sheer closeness of the matchup suggests that we might get a seventh game, but we don’t want to rely on that solely. If there is an edge here, it might be that the Lightning have gone from weary, due to playing a ton of postseason hockey after the restart post-pandemic, to being the fresher of the two teams.
After back-to-back first-round exits, the Lightning don’t have the same accumulation of mileage that the Panthers’ eight rounds of Stanley Cup Playoff intensity has put on their bodies the last two seasons.
Since you win a +1.5 bet as soon as your side gets to three wins, and the Lightning get three games at home before we even get to the backup plan - winning a Game 6, finding a good price on Tampa at +1.5 at DraftKings is the way to bet a series that could go either way.
Series bet: Lightning +1.5 games (-190, DraftKings)
Game moneyline target prices:
Game 1/2/5/7: Tampa Bay (-110 or better)
Game 3/4/6: Tampa Bay (+140 or better)
Leading goal-scorer prop: Jake Guentzel (+650, FanDuel) / Yanni Gourde (+6500, DraftKings/Bet365)
Criteria:
1) Looking for a hot-scorer
2) Featured on the PP
3) Reason he’s underrated in the marketSince the 4 Nations Face-off, four different Lightning players scored between nine and 11 goals, but Jake Guentzel led the way. Guentzel also led the team in power-play goals in his first year in Tampa, picking up where Steven Stamkos (last season’s goal leader against the Panthers) left off.
Playing on Tampa’s nominal second line, Guentzel gets away from the Panthers’ best defensive line (whatever line Aleksander Barkov is on).
Nikita Kucherov hasn’t had more than eight goals in a full postseason since 2016, as he’s evolved into one of the game’s preeminent playmakers, while Brayden Point’s topped out at two goals per series since racking up 14 overall in the Cup run of 2021.
Part of the reason the Lightning can spread the scoring out over two lines is the reacquisition of Gourde. He can play with Kucherov and Point on the No. 1 line, and given that it might only take three or four goals to lead a series, a short burst in scoring from Gourde might be enough to cash a big underdog in this betting market, making him worth a couple of bucks along with Guentzel.
Quick reminder:
As we venture forward at THE WINDOW, please acknowledge that you’ve found value in this content by liking (❤️) and/or restacking (🔄).
It will help others on Substack find THE WINDOW. “When I get it right, great! I want you to be able to see my work and understand how I got there, when I don’t.”