Stanley Cup Playoffs betting: Wild-Golden Knights series preview
Minnesota’s finally healthy, but can they hang with multi-dimensional Vegas?
Before the season, bettors poured over the regular-season point total market and after weeks of being able to bet into this market, the Wild were assessed to be a 95-point team, while 99 points was the take-it-or-leave-it number for the Golden Knights.
Minnesota managed to barely exceed their total, as 97 (and a last-minute goal in Game 82) was just enough to make the playoffs. Meanwhile, Vegas quietly won the Pacific division with 110 points. Luckily, both seasons cash the same when it comes to their bettors who had tickets on the over, but their body of work has built separation in how the betting market perceives each team heading into the playoffs.
The best news for Vegas fans, is that they don’t have to be defensive about their even-strength metrics anymore.
After finishing the 2022-‘23 season 16th in even-strength xG%, those of us who value 5-on-5 play were not psyched that the Golden Knights converted 21.1% of their high-danger chances at even-strength (league average: 11.2%) AND found an unknown goaltender (on his third team in three years) to suddenly average 0.86 GSAx per 60 minutes during their run to the Stanley Cup.
I’ll let you know the year I get over it.
I promise you that fans of the VGK don’t care about that incredible confluence of statistical anomalies, but two playoffs later, not only is Adin Hill still the goaltender (averaging a more sensibly solid 0.24 GSAx/60), the Golden Knights were in the top-10 in even-strength xG% for the first time 2021-‘22.
With life imitating art geography, Minnesota isn’t as sexy as Vegas, in part because the Wild made the playoffs despite missing a potential 50-goal scorer, Kirill Kaprizov, for literally half of the season (25 goals in 41 games). Had Kaprizov stayed healthy and kept the pace of his 23 goals before Christmas, we might be talking about a team with a Hart trophy candidate, and likely not merely a playoff Wild Card.
The inside scoop
Whether you can find them on Substack, or elsewhere, here’s a take from a member of the media that’s followed each team closely, about what will make-or-break their chances in the playoffs.
The Wild:
“Besides Kirill Kaprizov, who will step up to match the likes of Jack Eichel, Mark Stone, and Tomas Hertl? The Wild will need to push the attack to the net. Vegas has been susceptible to high-danger chance defensively, so if the Wild become content with perimeter shots, that will make things harder than they need to be.”
- Seth Toupal, Locked on Wild Podcast
The Golden Knights:
“The X-factor for the Golden Knights this year has been getting scoring from surprising places, starting with Pavel Dorofyev’s 35 goals, triggering the No. 2-ranked power play in the NHL. The names of dangerous goal-scorers that used to jump off the page aren’t here anymore, but this version of the Golden Knights still set the franchise record in goals scored.”
- Ken Boehlke, sinbin.vegas
THE WINDOW’s Skaters Rating
ES HDC%: Even-strength high-danger chance share
ES XG%: Even strength expected goal share
SNIPES%: (ES HD Goals + Power-play goals) / (ES HDG + ES PP Opp)
RATING: Above (+) or Below (-) league average
NEUTRAL WIN%: Probability of winning on neutral ice
IWP: Implied win probability (from a moneyline)We’ve already noted that this edition of the Golden Knights is better at 5-on-5 than even the Champions of a couple years ago. As Boehlke states above, that’s thanks to a deeper group of scorers and a power play that’s translated to an above-average SNIPES%.
The key element among comparing each team’s skaters is trying to assess the actual value of Kaprizov relative to a replacement-level player.
Let’s look at it from a few angles.
Moneypuck.com rates Kaprizov at +17.7% relative expected goals in all situations, and though he played just 41 games, he was credited with 4.2 goals above expected (GAx) at even-strength. Had his numbers doubled over 82 games, a 50-goal season might have translated to 8.4 GAx (top-10 in the NHL). All of this came with Kaprizov getting just three of his 23 pre-Christmas goals on the power play.
I’ll save you the math, but getting 17.7% more goals in the 20+ minutes he would have played in each of the 41 games Kaprizov missed, adds at least 3% of win probability to the Wild when Kaprizov plays.
Fine, you want the math, Sicko?
4.8 GAx (all situations) / 41 games = 0.12 GAx per game.
One offensive goal is worth 25% towards win probability. 0.12 * 0.25 = 3% of added win probability just on Kaprizov’s goals alone.
Lined with a regular-season point total of 95 points, the Wild’s market rating was 4% above average (1.04). When we looked at market ratings on Valentine’s Day (you’re welcome, Ladies), the Wild were at 1.00 (down 4%), and then to 0.95 (5% below average) a month later. With Kaprizov back, their rating is back up to 1.05 (5% above average).
In the 30 games the Wild played before Christmas, when Kaprizov was cooking, Minnesota was 19-11 on the moneyline. It’s a short sample size but a 63.3% win percentage puts the Wild’s best at +13.3 (1.133).
All of this begs the question - now healthy, are the Wild properly rated for this series?
But first, we have to look at the goaltending matchup.
Goaltender Effects
We take into account of how the presumed starting goaltenders are playing coming into the postseason, estimating how much win probability will shift based on recent form. To be safe, we adjust that estimated win probability 25% towards the mean.
Oh, that’s easy. There’s virtually no difference in what we can expect from the starting goaltenders here.
Hill might be great. Filip Gustavsson might be great.
Hill might be average. Gustavsson might be too.
Hill might stink, so might Gustavsson.
But, by the numbers, all options are just as likely for both (within 1% of win probability). Although, it’s possible that Hill’s Stanley Cup ring has earned him a few percentage points of benefit of the doubt.
How to bet Wild-Golden Knights
For those still new to the concept of implied win probability (the conversion of odds to a percentage chance of a result), -178 to -205 might feel like a massive gap, since you’re asked to spend 27 more dollars or cents, but it’s only a 3.2% difference in probability. As in, the market thinks Vegas is 67.2%, while we might peg it at 64% - not a significant difference, even if DraftKings (VGK -205) and Bet365 (VGK -260) have a differing opinion on the pricing.
Our numbers are built off a team rating of Vegas as 8% above average, and the Wild as 4% below average. We can hypothesize that the market thinks it’s something more like 10% and 5% below, respectively, creating the 3% gap between 67% and 64%.
However, since we know that Minnesota has been considered at least an average NHL team when healthy with Kaprizov (and Joel Eriksson Ek), there’s reason to believe the Wild could play this series at a league-average level, or better.
If they can exceed that level (pre-Christmas style) and gain a goaltending advantage from Gustavsson, the Wild are live for an upset, but out of respect for the Golden Knights’ depth and strong even-strength play, we won’t fade Vegas outright.
We’ve built in a home-ice advantage of 4% for every team in the playoffs, but you could make the case it will be increased for both sides in their home games, in front of electric crowds. That gives Minnesota a better chance to hold serve at home and force a Game 7, which would already clinch a bet on the series spread (fair price of -117).
Series bet: Wild +1.5 games (-114, FanDuel)
Game moneyline target prices:
Game 1/2/5/7: Minnesota (+175 or better)
Game 3/4/6: Minnesota (+120 or better)
Leading goal-scorer prop: Matt Boldy (+1200, Bet365)
Criteria:
1) Looking for a hot-scorer
2) Featured on the PP
3) Reason he’s underrated in the marketHere’s the betting market’s take on this series’ leading goal-scorer:
Kaprizov (the favorite in this market) is going to score all of the Wild’s goals (give or take a goal or two)
Any number of Golden Knights can score, as they have all season (which is why VGK is favored for the series)
If this series is close, someone else on the Wild is going to have to score, and with a little luck, they might even have more goals than Kaprizov.
Matt Boldy is on the Wild’s top line and No. 1 PP unit, and his seven goals after the break were tied for a team-high.
The 24-year-old former first-round pick led the Wild in goals (27), but where he really racked it up was in the shots category. 271 was good for sixth in the NHL, and more than 100 clear of anyone else on the team.
A goal shy of his second 30-goal season last year (in 75 games), Boldy had a career-high in points this year, but coming up shy of 30 again wasn’t for lack of shot attempts. Boldy’s -6.7 goals above expected during the regular season (second-worst on the Wild) suggests he’s due for a positive regression. At 12-to-1, it’s worth a bet on that coming this week.
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