Stanley Cup Playoffs second round in-series betting update
Where pre-series bets stand and what’s left to look for
Driving ranges are all the way back throughout the land.
The golf perverts and sickos (🙋♂️) playing through weather conditions flirting with freezing temperatures no longer have to warm up on the harsh terrain of range mats, with teeth chattering.
Along with the thawed terrain and frost-free short grass, mouths are freed up to let the takes cook at high temperature, with a concentration in the surrounding areas of the eight teams still alive in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Although, a naysayer might wonder if Dallas, Sunrise, Raleigh, and Vegas-area golf courses have the same hockey-centric buzz going as those around Toronto, Winnipeg, Edmonton and Washington.
If there’s such thing as a lull in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, it might be at the start of the second round - after the mayhem of the first round and before teams can say they’re more than halfway to a championship. However, that doesn’t stop passionate fanbases and bettors alike from having an opinion on what’s transpired in each of the four series that, as is often the case in hockey, could end very soon or be extended to the maximum seven games.
While the hand-wringing goes on between poorly-struck 7-irons, the best we can do is look at each series by the numbers.
Panthers (-190) vs. Maple Leafs (+165)
< Tied 2-2 >
Game 5 (May 14)
Series preview keys
At +150 for the series, on paper, the Leafs were a valuable bet, but those numbers are built on a lacklustre Panthers’ regular season without key current players like Matthew Tkachuk, Brad Marchand, Seth Jones, and Aaron Ekblad
The numbers suggest that the Maple Leafs have the advantage in net given the stellar play of Anthony Stolarz down the stretch and in Round 1, compared to merely “good” play of Sergei Bobrovsky, but when it comes to playoff action, can we rely on that knowing “Bob’s” resume?
Logically, we’d suggest that there are holes in the numbers and, if so, the best version of the Panthers might be able to win the series in six games or fewer, especially at the price offered at FanDuel
Ticket held: Panthers -1.5 games (+122)
Even-strength metrics
Contrary to reports from Toronto-area driving ranges, the Maple Leafs have not reverted to a version of themselves from years’ past. That’s because even-strength production in Game 3 or Game 4, wasn’t much different than in their wins. Toronto has actually been remarkably consistent, with 8, 6, 6, and 6 high-danger chances in the first four games of the series.
What has changed over the course of the series?
Sergei Bobrovsky played the first three games at a sub-standard level of -4.5 GSAx. In Game 4, while Leafs’ fans and bettors should have been thrilled with Joseph Woll’s good game, Bobrovsky stopped 3.76 goals above an average ‘tender in his shutout win.
This could end up being a similar situation to Round 1 versus the Senators, where Linus Ullmark had a massive Game 5 shutout amidst an otherwise poor series, or perhaps a more proven playoff performer (like the Panthers as a whole) is finally switched on in a way commensurate with the intensity needed in playoff hockey, jolted to life by an opponent capable of taking advantage of any uncharacteristic weakness.
Is there a bet?
Like the irrational belief often seen on the first tee, we’re holding out hope for our Panthers -1.5 games ticket (currently available at +150, if you missed it the first time, but likely better as a rollover 2-game parlay).
The Leafs have taken a little money, as the Panthers were lined as high as -145, but as of Wednesday morning, there’s a -130 available. Either way, the betting market thinks it‘s more likely that Florida wins this game in Toronto than when the Panthers were favored slightly in Game 1, but not quite as confident as the bettors that pushed the Game 2 line up north of -160.
What’s concerning for Leafs Nation is that the synthetic 7-game series price was Florida -166/Toronto +150, and the current price in the now 3-game series (that should benefit the underdog, usually meaning a shorter price) is Florida -190/Toronto +165.
Perhaps that’s due to Anthony Stolarz absence, but we’d argue that the chart above about the play on the ice at even-strenghth - which projects Florida driving the play at 64% to Toronto’s 36% - has provided the market with the added information needed to make the fair odds longer than before the series started.
Meanwhile, if William Nylander could chill out, Sam Bennett (our pick) is one goal back of the Maple Leafs’ star for the series goal-scoring lead. While our odds of +1400 are locked in, Bennett’s at +1000 via DraftKings.
Capitals (+1250) vs. Hurricanes (-2500)
< Hurricanes lead 3-1 >
Game 5 (May 15)
Series preview keys
Despite a strong showing from Logan Thompson in Round 1, Frederik Andersen was actually the best goaltender in the playoffs’ first round
Carolina was subpar in converting their best scoring chances against the Devils and still won in five games, while the Capitals took advantage of Montreal having to go to their backup when the series was still up for grabs
With two methods - an increase in SNIPES% or a goaltending advantage - for the Hurricanes to makes up ground in the metrics, Carolina’s worth a bet at anything around the -155 moneyline (available at DraftKings)
Ticket held: Hurricanes to win series (-155)
Even-strength metrics
After blowing out the Capitals metrically in Game 1, completely skewing the odds for Game 2 that went from Washington +105 (opening line for Game 1) to Washington +145 (closing line of Game 2), the Capitals have actually stayed right with the Hurricanes, creating more high-danger chances at even-strength.
Andersen’s saved over six goals above an average goaltender (6.06 GSAx), while Thompson fell to 1.69 GSAx after a rough Game 4. We suggested that the Hurricanes goaltenders would need to save them 0.7 goals per game for Carolina to be valuable, and these GSAx numbers equate to 1.09 per game.
Is there a bet?
With three tries to win us the Hurricanes series bet, you can happily sit back and wait for Carolina to close.
Meanwhile, despite only producing two assists so far, Sebastian Aho (+700 at FanDuel) is only one point behind a gaggle of teammates for the series point lead, keeping intrigue alive in that market as well.
With the Capitals at +145 on the moneyline at home for Game 5, that’s a 6.9% edge on our projected fair price for Washington. It’s the same odds as were available in Game 2, but that came after the Capitals were dominated on the stat sheet in one game. Having competed well since, this number is too high, and a Caps’ win doesn’t hurt the Hurricanes chances to win the series all that much.
For more on the in-series outlook for the Round 2 series, including the battle between series value and game-to-game value, check out Tuesday’s episode of THE WINDOW podcast.
Oilers (-850) vs. Golden Knights (+575)
< Oilers lead 3-1 >
Game 5 (May 14)
Series preview keys
The Oilers’ new-found depth with a viable second line and some scoring punch from the bottom-6 forwards should allow them to reach the heights that were expected of them before the regular season
The Golden Knights regular season performance, with depth of scoring, sturdy defense, and solid goaltending, was impressive, but their ability to play at the highest level is in question
Given the goalie matchup isn’t a huge mismatch, the Oilers’ advantage in their top-end skaters should make them better than the near 50/50 odds available in the series market
Ticket held: Oilers to win series (-115)
Even-strength metrics
While the Golden Knights opened the series with two early goals, Edmonton was the better team in Game 1 in a comeback win. As you’d expect, Vegas played much better in Game 2 (down 0-1 in the series and playing at home), but after losing that, their Game 3 “desperation” only amounted to a coin-flip situation in Game 3 - a game won by the Golden Knights with the help of Stuart Skinner’s -1.07 GSAx and a last-second miracle.
The Oilers didn’t like the taste of their own blood, and came out like a house on fire in Game 4, scoring (and scrapping) early, then locking-in around Skinner (who had a shutout with a relatively low 2.01 GSAx).
The Pickard-Skinner duo has saved the Oilers 1.5 goals, while Adin Hill has allowed 1.29 below the expectation of a replacement-level netminder.
Is there a bet?
After offering up the Oilers at +120 (our moneyline target for backing Edmonton game-to-game on the road in this series), oddsmakers have caught up to our valuation of this matchup, and the best current moneyline being offered is only +111.
As a result, there’s little to do but sit back and hope Edmonton closes out Vegas in one of the next two games, before potentially needing to revisit this series before a potential Game 7.
It doesn’t appear as if Connor McDavid (one goal) is going to lead the series in goal-scoring, but it’s not for lack of trying. Putting credence to our pre-series handicap that McDavid’s shooting at win, his 17 shots on goal are SEVEN clear of Leon Draisaitl for most on the Oilers.
Stars (-1200) vs. Jets (+750)
< Stars lead 3-1 >
Game 5 (May 15)
Series preview keys
With all its moving parts - four questionable star players and a star Jets’ goaltender who’s numbers are so bad they can’t be truly calculated into series win probability - a fair price for the series is almost impossible to calculate and bet with
With such high potential variance in the stats, a high-variance bet is the only thing worth looking for, and Under 5.5 games qualifies, given that either team could have a significant advantage in either health or goaltending, or both
Ticket held: Under 5.5 games (+164)
Even-strength metrics
The story (I’ve heard the synonym “narrative” used once or twice in the media the last few years) of Game 1 and 2 didn’t match what actually happened on the ice.
In Game 1, Mikko Rantanen made headlines, taking away from an extremely tight game that was won on a good bounce for Dallas. In Game 2, the Jets got those bounces early, but didn’t do much else. However, no one noticed because with the Josh Morrissey back in the lineup, the Jets “finally have their full roster back!”
That health didn’t help Winnipeg in Game 3, where Dallas was the much better team. As it often happens, the Jets played better off of a loss in Game 4, but Jake Oettinger was outstanding. His 2.18 GSAx likely would have been up over 3.0 in a potential shutout if it weren’t for a soft goal allowed, but maybe that was the slap in the face required for “Otter” to put on a show at 1-1, buying time for Mikael Granlund to pull off three of the nicest shots you’ll see as part of a hat-trick.
Is there a bet?
The triple-edged sword of the in-series betting check-in is that either a) your original handicap is off and you’re in a bad position to make a bet, b) the handicap was pretty good, but series results have you in a place where better odds are available (*cough* Panthers *cough*), or c) you’re in such a good position with a pre-series bet that there’s nothing left to do, which is great for our bets, but less jazzy from a content perspective.
Just like with the Oilers and Hurricanes, that latter situation is the case here, where Stars’ futures are in a good place to advance to the Western Conference Finals, and our pre-series bet of Under 5.5 games essentially acts as a bet on the Stars moneyline in Game 5.
At +164, the Under 5.5 games bet in pocket is a lot better than the current best price of the Stars (+100) moneyline.
A pick’em-esque line is in keeping with Game 1 and 2 of this series, but three things have happened since. The Stars finally saw the return of star defenseman Miro Heiskanen (who deftly set up Granlund’s third goal, in a relatively light 15 minutes of TOI), the Stars have outplayed the Jets (predicted by the market in Dallas being the favorite for the series), and Connor Hellebuyck has been merely average (-0.06 GSAx), still not ready to put on his regular-season Superman cape.
Granlund and Rantanen have hat-tricks already in this series, so our pick to click - Wyatt Johnston will need one of his own to somehow lead the series in goals. These are what’s called “good problems” in the betting landscape.
Next up: Once Conference finalists are decided look for the Conference Championship previews to come from THE WINDOW!
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