On Monday’s episode of THE WINDOW Podcast, Matt Russell (@mrussauthentic on X) looks back at a pair of historically improbably Game 7 comeback wins.
The Stars keep hope alive for those holding Stanley Cup futures tickets on a team who might be getting better, while the Jets save their season and maybe the future of their goaltender with a last-second goal and a double-overtime victory.
What to make of that second round series going forward, along with a forensic autopsy of the other three series to end since Thursday.
Here are the even-strength metrics for each of the first round series (before applying the affect that goaltending had on the series), and the odds for that win compared to their pre-series odds.
The “WIN PROB.” column is the percentage chance for a win on neutral ice.Eastern Conference:
Metrics-based “fair” odds for a series win: WSH -179 / MTL +179
THE WINDOW projection: WSH -119 / MTL +119
Pre-series (best available) odds: WSH -260 / MTL +250
Goaltending advantage: Capitals (big)
Metrics-based “fair” odds for a series win: CAR -164 / NJD +164
THE WINDOW projection: CAR -300 / NJD +300
Pre-series (best available) odds: CAR -245 / NJD +230
Goaltending advantage: Hurricanes (small)
Metrics-based “fair” odds for a series win: TB +125 / FLA -125
THE WINDOW projection: TB +100 / FLA +100
Pre-series (best available) odds: TB -105 / FLA -114
Goaltending advantage: Panthers (big)
Metrics-based “fair” odds for a series win: TOR +148 / OTT -148
THE WINDOW projection: TOR -155 / OTT +155
Pre-series (best available) odds: TOR -170 / OTT +150
Goaltending advantage: Maple Leafs (big)
Western Conference:
Metrics-based “fair” odds for a series win: DAL +193 / COL -193
THE WINDOW projection: DAL -119 / COL +119
Pre-series (best available) odds: DAL +126 / COL -140
Goaltending advantage: Stars (small)
(odds got longer after preview was published)
Metrics-based “fair” odds for a series win: WPG -164 / STL +164
THE WINDOW projection: WPG -158 / STL +185
Pre-series (best available) odds: WPG -180 / STL +185
Goaltending advantage: Blues (big)
Metrics-based “fair” odds for a series win: VGS -179 / MIN +179
THE WINDOW projection: VGS -178 / MIN +178
Pre-series (best available) odds: VGS -205 / MIN +210
Goaltending advantage: Wild (small)
Metrics-based “fair” odds for a series win: EDM -286 / LAK +286
THE WINDOW projection: EDM +127 / LAK -127
Pre-series (best available) odds: EDM -130 / LAK +110
Goaltending advantage: Kings (small)
Plus, there’s a familiar name to add to the Conn Smythe Trophy portfolio ahead of Round 2.
Finally, Matt quickly looks back at last week’s article about the NFL’s regular-season win total market, the NFL Draft, and how we have a first look at NFL team market power ratings - the basis of understanding for NFL betting next season.
It’s time to head to THE WINDOW, let’s go!
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