Stanley Cup Playoffs betting: Oilers-Golden Knights series preview
Edmonton has (finally) hit their high-end capability
They call it “momentum,” but scientifically, that’s “the driving force gained by the development of a process or course of events.” Essentially, something happens and the ball gets rolling in one direction. That is, until something else happens and that “ball” not only gets stopped, but turned and started in a different direction. If that shift in direction is frequent and/or probable, what is momentum actually worth?
Instead of sports people calling it “momentum,” if they just called it “energy,” that would explain the swings of a playoff series without putting so much pressure on the actual definition of momentum. As in, something happens to give a team energy - which is great - but it’s not as difficult to overcome, and 6-5 hockey games can happen without being a modern mystery of science.
While everyone’s using a buzz word they remember from high school physics class, some playoff series reflect a lesson many of us learned much earlier - if you pull too many blocks out of the Jenga tower, it all falls down.
That takes a LOT more energy to get built back up.
The Wild and Kings, who started their series a combined 4-1 but finished them 0-7, saw the tower they were building quickly turn into a pile of wood blocks, and now Minnesota and L.A. have been vanquished, which makes them theoretically irrelevant.
But with Vegas and Edmonton moving on, we can review the first round to help us look forward, as there may be a difference in how the winners were able to build a sturdy base, without a shaky hand that could have led to their downfall.
First round autopsy
How each team made it through their first series (stats via naturalstattrick.com)
Kings-Oilers:
Let’s tell it like it is. Once all the cards were on the table, the Oilers beat the Kings’ ass.
From Game 3 through the end of Game 6, the Oilers generated more than four expected goals at even-strength in each of those four games. The rest of the playoff teams COMBINED to do that three times (Carolina twice, Colorado once).
Los Angeles was supposed to be deeper than Edmonton, but 16 Oilers had either two goals, three points, or both.
After a wild Game 1, where the Kings dominated the first two periods before almost caving in epic fashion, two things happened:
After one shot in less than 15 minutes of play in his first game in almost a year, Evander Kane averaged 3.5 shots on almost 18 minutes of play in Games 3-6
The Oilers pulled the parachute on Stuart Skinner (-2.82 GSAx in less than two games), and replaced him with Calvin Pickard (-0.48 GSAx in four games)
Wild-Golden Knights:
Kirill Kaprizov and Matt Boldy combined for 10 goals. Everyone else on the Wild combined for nine.
Eight of those top-line Wild goals came in the first three games, which suggests that the Golden Knights figured out that maybe their entire defensive focus had to go towards slowing them down. It worked, but the Knights still needed back-to-back overtime wins - one of which came after a late Minnesota go-ahead goal was waived-off after it was deemed offside by a fraction of an inch, because of a lazy offensive zone entry by Gustav Nyquist (who was otherwise invisible during the series).
THE WINDOW’s Skaters Rating (Regular season)
ES HDC%: Even-strength high-danger chance share
ES XG%: Even strength expected goal share
SNIPES%: (ES HD Goals + Power-play goals) / (ES HDG + ES PP Opp)
RATING: Above (+) or Below (-) league average
NEUTRAL WIN%: Probability of winning on neutral ice
IWP: Implied win probability (from a moneyline)Leading into Minnesota-Vegas, we applauded the Golden Knights for their scoring depth, with 12 players capable of 10 goals or more during the season, and their strong even-strength advanced metrics.
Compared to the 2023 Cup-winning team… nope, still not over it
Depth comes in more than one form. Kane’s return allows the Oilers to either put Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl on the same line while still being able to generate offense with a second line, or spread their two mega-stars across each. Add in Corey Perry, who can move up to play with McDavid and Draisaitl or ply his special brand of irritation on the fourth line.
Vegas has two issues here:
They can’t lock-in to stop one line, like they did in order to barely get by the Wild.
As good as the Golden Knights even-strength metrics were this season, the Oilers were better, particularly impressive since:
That came without Kane for the whole season (and the versatility he offers the lineup)
McDavid (15) and Draisaitl (11) combined to miss 26 games this season (but look very much healthy now)
The Oilers’ SNIPES% went from 14.6% in the regular season to 21.1% against the Kings, who were supposed to boast a good defense and a Vezina-nominated goaltender.
Goaltender Effects
While season-long stats are cool, every April we’re reminded that, when the puck drops on the Stanley Cup Playoffs, the calculus changes. So, we’ll take into account how the presumed starting goaltenders are playing so far this postseason, estimating how much win probability will shift based on postseason form. As we did heading into the playoffs, we adjust that estimated win probability 25% towards the mean for the win probability differential.
This is fun.
Unlike the big GSAx numbers from the goaltenders in the Hurricanes-Capitals series, or the conflict of good numbers (Anthony Stolarz) and resume (Sergei Bobrovsky) in Maple Leafs-Panthers, neither goalie in this series was even average in Round 1, but at least they’ve been equally mediocre.
Vegas can take some solace in Hill having an above-average 0.26 GSAx/60 during the regular season, whereas the Oilers’ goalie combo of Pickard and Skinner weren’t good in the regular season.
It wouldn’t be at all surprising to see Skinner back in the crease at some point in this series, but the Oilers were able to beat the Kings handily without even average goaltending from Pickard, so a goalie swap doesn’t change any projections.
How to bet Oilers-Golden Knights
No, the Oilers didn’t live up to their reputation during the regular season. They were lined at 108.5 regular-season points, and only managed 101. They spent the entire season rated between 20% and 25% above league-average - a rating that made them largely unprofitable on a game-to-game basis.
Edmonton was never downgraded because their metrics remained really good, and they’re now healthier than they have been all season (minus Mattias Ekholm), and just dominated the Kings - a team with almost no glaring weakness - at even strength.
The Golden Knights’ consistency is the type of thing that’s going to do well in the regular season. They accumulate points, get a good seed for the playoffs, and an easier first round matchup - one with a weakness or two that can be exploited over the course of a 7-game series. But, when it comes to winning a second round series, they’ll need to up their game - shutting down more than one viable scoring line, getting a significant improvement in net, all while still staying out of the penalty box (avoiding the most dangerous power play of the last half-decade or more).
If Vegas does all that, they CAN win, but in a series lined around 50/50 (or more specifically, our projection of 54/46), betting that they’ll do all that would be a leap of faith.
We just saw the Oilers win without even average goaltending, while overcoming the Kings’ 40% power play. Edmonton might run out of answers when they face a team that’s as deep, as dominant, AND has high-level goaltending (you know, like the Panthers last year), but the Golden Knights profile short of that - as a top-8 team, but not a top-4 team.
Series bet: Oilers to win series (-115, Bet365)
Game moneyline target prices:
Game 1/2/5/7: Oilers (+115 or better)
Game 3/4/6: Oilers (-125 or better)
Most goals: Connor McDavid (+550, DraftKings)
Beyond “he’s Connor freaking McDavid, so why not?”, the argument for McDavid the goal-scorer vs. Connor the playmaker, is that he actually led the Oilers in shots on goal against the Kings, but only scored twice. Plus, neither goal came on the power play.
If McDavid ups his shooting percentage from 8.7% (2/23) to anything above his 13.3% from the regular season, he’ll have a shot to match the five goals (on 24 shots) he scored in the 2023 series against Vegas.
This isn’t a 50/50 shot, nor is there a 25% chance of this happening, but it’s not as low as 15.4% (implied probability of +550 odds) either.
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