Stanley Cup Playoffs first round betting: The in-series outlook for the West
The fun group at the postseason party might all be in for the long haul
Let’s be honest, the Eastern side of the Stanley Cup Playoffs hasn’t been all that fun.
Unless, you’re into big favorites barely winning and weird circumstantial outliers. You sicko.
As for the West? We’re having the time of our lives!
Of course, things like, “the Kings getting up early on the Oilers,” figuring out “the Wild might be sick,” and “two Stars wins in overtime” are going to provide enjoyment when you have a bet on those sides. Plus, the Blues stepped it up at home to make their series with the Jets more interesting than anything going on back east.
Kings (-500) vs. Oilers (+375)
< 2-0 Kings >
Game 3 (April 25)
Series preview keys
Compared to the three-straight years of series losses, the Kings’ special teams can’t be worse this time around.
Darcy Kuemper is the next in a long line of goaltenders to come into the playoffs hot, but as a Stanley Cup-winner, he’s got the best chance of outperforming the susceptible Stuart Skinner.
Unless someone steps up for Edmonton, even the greatness of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl isn’t enough to match the Kings, who are deeper than they’ve ever been.
Bet: Kings to win series (+120)
Even-strength metrics
If you’re reading this, you already know Game 1 was wild. McDavid’s sheer greatness singularly brought the Oilers back from down 4-0 and 5-2, only to see the Oilers’ lose on a quasi-fanned shot in the final seconds.
It was the perfect scenario of getting to witness McDavid at his peak while also winning a bet on the Kings (as discussed on Monday’s THE WINDOW podcast).
While the even-strength metrics are a mess - in part because the Oilers’ shooters have five goals on 16 high-danger chances at even-strength - a 31.25% rate that’s absurdly high even for McDavid, Draisaitl, and their hangers-on (Corey Perry), the story of the first two games is the special teams.
Not being as impossibly bad as last year is one thing, but the Kings scoring five times on 10 power-play opportunities, while holding the Oilers’ PP to 0-for-5, is above and beyond the call of duty for their special teams.
Darcy Kuemper and Stuart Skinner went from bad-bad in Game 1 (-2.7 and -2.02 GSAx, respectively) to just regular bad in Game 2 (-0.28 and -0.8), but more goals went in on Skinner (and then Calvin Pickard), so he gets the heat for the Oilers being down 0-2.
Is there a bet?
Depending on whether you shopped for the right price on L.A., or just threw caution to the wind before Game 2, we’ve won as many as two units betting on the Kings in Games 1 and 2, and now our plus-money ticket on the Kings for the series is -500.
As highly as we valued the Kings before the series started, our target price for them on the moneyline for the games in Edmonton was +120. After the market opened L.A. shorter than that, bettors have backed the Oilers, pushing them as high as -150, likely factoring the desperation level of the Oilers, down 0-2, returning home.
If that’s worth anything, the Kings aren’t worth betting a third time. Instead, we’re better off hoping L.A. - the better team for five of the six periods in this series - can gain a split in Edmonton one way or another, eventually closing this thing out, adding to an already-profitable series.
Based purely on numbers, and if you can stomach trusting Kuemper and Skinner to play a little bit better, under 6.0 goals might be a valuable bet in Game 3, based on the low xG rate in Game 2, and an absurd SNIPES% for both that should average down.
Golden Knights (-105) vs. Wild (-115)
< 2-1 Wild >
Game 4 (April 26)
Series preview keys
“We know that Minnesota has been considered at least an average NHL team when healthy with Kaprizov (and Joel Eriksson Ek), so there’s reason to believe the Wild could play this series at a league-average level, or better. If they can exceed that level and gain a goaltending advantage from Gustavsson, the Wild are live for an upset.”
Filip Gustavsson and Adin Hill are equally capable of playing great, average, or bad.
Bet: Wild +1.5 games (-114)
Even-strength metrics
This series has emphasized that there are no guarantees by winning the battle at even strength. However, context matters as well. The Wild took big leads in Game 2 and 3 which spurred the Golden Knights to pressure in the latter two periods. That Minnesota only allowed five even-strength high-danger chances after taking the early lead, is somewhat impressive, even if they weren’t generating their own outside of the power play.
Unlike their Stanley Cup run of 2023, the Golden Knights aren’t converting at an astronomical rate. Two goals on 25 chances is a full goal below what you’d expect from a merely average team.
Crucially, even with arguably the worst goal allowed this entire postseason (Pietrangelo’s in Game 3), Gustavsson’s been otherwise solid at 1.36 GSAx, while Adin Hill’s disappointed at -2.98. Backup Akira Schmid came in relief in Game 3, but if his 1.32 GSAx in less than a period convinces the Golden Knights into starting him in Game 4, it’s worth noting that he’s been the epitome of average in his 48 career regular-season games (0.03 GSAx/60). The chance of Schmid stealing any game is very low.
Is there a bet?
The market moved the Wild from +128 to +141 before Game 3 and that didn’t go well for those piling into the Golden Knights. With the best odds available at +126 for Game 4, we’ll see whether bettors have learned their lesson.
The series has been re-lined as a toss-up, but if you’re willing to bet that, there’s no reason not to take the underdog price for Game 4 instead, at what is a 7.7% edge by our numbers.
That said, having scored profit on backing the Wild twice already, and just one win away from securing the bet on the series, no one would blame you for just sitting back and hoping Minnesota gets one of the next three games.
Meanwhile, Matt Boldy (+1200) was our pick to lead the series in scoring, and if he doesn’t, it’s probably because the favorite in that market - and his linemate - Kirill Kaprizov, tops him. Kaprizov’s had one bank off him, flipped one in from the blue line and hit a long-bomb empty-netter to keep pace, while Boldy rang one off the post of an empty net at the end of Game 3.
With Boldy already at four goals, there’s even more reason to watch beyond the game-by-game results for the rest of this series.
Stars (-150) vs. Avalanche (+125)
< 2-1 Stars >
Game 4 (April 26)
Series preview keys
The Stars are being heavily devalued, likely based on the injury to Jason Robertson (and potentially a latent adjustment for not having Miro Heiskanen), and a losing streak to end the season.
The Avalanche are consistently highly thought-of in the betting market.
Jake Oettinger provides more playoff experience in net than Mackenzie Blackwood - in his first postseason start.
Bet: Stars win series (+126)
Even-strength metrics
A 5-1 score in Game 1 was misleading, as the Avalanche took advantage of two fluky goals, and Blackwood put up an outrageous 3.44 GSAx (according to Evolving-Hockey). Looking at the even-strength metrics (above) in Game 1 made for an easy bet to make on the Stars in Game 2 (per Monday’s THE WINDOW podcast), and while an overtime win wasn’t so simple, their even-strength metrics back up their capability even without Robertson and Heiskanen.
The market didn’t adjust enough in Game 3, maybe because of Gabriel Landeskog’s return. While Colorado was better in offensive creation at home, part of their even-strength advantage came from a 4-on-4 goal, when Valeri Nichushkin took advantage of a coverage breakdown from Dallas.
The Stars are in the position of favorite for the series, thanks to Dallas finally getting a peak performance from Jake Oettinger (2.13 GSAx). If he can stay consistently good, his overall numbers should catch up to Blackwood’s.
Is there a bet?
Having already banked almost three units from backing Dallas, we’re at a point where even if they lose this series, and we drop a unit on the series bet, plus our Stars’ Stanley Cup futures, we’ll at least finish as a net positive on backing “Big D” this postseason.
The Stars opened as long as +164 on the moneyline for Game 4, but those odds have shortened, either due to the market agreeing with our stance on Dallas, or perhaps some hope that Heiskanen may be back by Saturday night?
If you’re looking to ride the wave some more (and/or you don’t already have risk on the Stars in the futures market), even with an injury application of 3% for Robertson and Heiskanen potentially not back yet, +150 is still just inside a target price of +148 for Dallas.
As for the series, an Avalanche win in Game 4 might set up a valuable price in a “best-of-three” scenario with Dallas having home-ice advantage and the pending return of the Stars’ star defenseman.
Jets (-430) vs. Blues (+350)
< 2-1 Jets >
Game 4 (April 27)
Series preview keys
Both teams have had long stretches of statistical outlier conversion rates - the Jets early and the Blues down the stretch. Who’s more likely to tap into that?
Jordan Binnington is one of few goalies who we may expect to go save for save with Connor Hellebuyck.
While the underdog may be valuable, we’re more likely to return value in betting a long series.
Bet: Blues +1.5 games (-115)
Even-strength metrics
Sometimes blowout scores are misleading for how closely-played a game actually was. Through two games, this series had been misleading the other way, as the Jets were dominant at home in Games 1 and 2, despite both being played within a goal.
Then the scene shifted to St. Louis, where the Blues have won 12 straight, and are a shootout loss to the Jets back in February away from going undefeated at home since the 4 Nations Face-off. Unsurprisingly, the Blues came out hot with a goal in the first minute on Thursday and a 3-goal lead after the first period.
The Blues finally created a decent number of even-strength high-danger chances, converting three of 10, while the Jets have scored on six of 26. That 23% clip is double the league average, and even higher than their league-best regular season rate.
Prior to the playoffs, many excuse was being made for Connor Hellebuyck’s postseason struggles of the past, but, folks, through three games the probable Vezina winner this season is dead last in GSAx at -4.25.
There’s no explanation for Hellebuyck’s playoff issues, and he hasn’t done anything to quell the murmurs about them. Meanwhile, after a rough Game 1, Binnington’s battled back, with 1.87 goals-saved above expectation in the last two.
Is there a bet?
If the Blues are going to get three wins in this series, they may have to come in all three home games. If that’s enough for you to remain interested in Game 4, ride that out.
However, it is interesting that the oddsmakers have made St. Louis an even bigger underdog for Sunday’s game (+110) than they were for Game 3 (+105). This is likely based on the assumption that Hellebuyck plays better, and that the Blues don’t have the same hot start, but it ignores a reasonable assumption that the Jets’ SNIPES% (8/36, 22.2%) should regress to the mean.
Based on Hellebucyk’s numbers and the Blues’ home record recently, there’s no reason to believe either has to turn around, especially when we’re getting better than even money on a team with some life.
In what should be a closer game, a moneyline bet of +110 is still worth it, on the way to, hopefully, a 7-game series.
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