Stanley Cup Playoffs first round betting: The East’s in-series outlook
All four series are still waiting for a second team to win a game
After breaking down all eight first-round series before they happened, we’ve had 2-3 played for each, which has provided data from the ice, and information in the betting market, which has allowed us to evaluate those against our pre-postseason hypotheses.
Along the way, we’ve been able to chip away, game-by-game, to be profitable in series like Stars-Avalanche, Kings-Oilers, Wild-Golden Knights, and Blues-Jets, or as it’s more commonly known “the West.”
Meanwhile, here in the East, we’ve been passive observers in the series between the Devils and Hurricanes, while lopsided results in the other three have been a bad thing, especially considering that the games have been closer than the series favorites going 9-0.
Capitals (-1100) vs. Canadiens (+700)
< 2-0 Capitals >
Game 3 (April 25)
Series preview keys
The Canadiens have a significant goaltending advantage based on the difference between the play of Sam Montembeault and Logan Thompson down the stretch, whatever advantage they carry into the playoffs provides value on the underdog.
Bet: Canadiens to win series (+250)
Even-strength metrics
The Canadiens have lost two close games, and they have deserved to. Based on the metrics from Game 1, they were 63% to lose, even if overtime somewhat implies a 50/50 game (especially when an unfortunate judgement call on an icing helped set up the game-winner). Game 2 was better, thanks to a late push, but Montreal fell a goal short, thanks to the core basis of our series handicap having the tables turned on us.
Whether it’s the sizeable odds on the series line, or the Habs’ status as a modest underdog in each game, the hope was that Montreal’s goaltending would make up for the even-strength metrics that we knew would favor the Capitals. At least enough to gain a split in Washington.
Sam Montembeault has been great (2.0 GSAx for the series), but as we discussed in THE WINDOW podcast on Wednesday, he needed to be around 0.36 GSAx better than Logan Thompson in Game 2 for the Habs to be a valuable bet. Montembault’s 1.32 GSAx should have been enough, but alas, Thompson saved 1.73 above expectation (mostly during an outstanding third period) and two quick Caps’ goals was enough.
Thompson has returned from the few weeks off he had at the end of season, shrugging off his post-4 Nations Face-off break struggles, to the tune of +3.5 GSAx in the two games of this series (according to Moneypuck.com). It’s a twist, to say the least.
The series shifts to Montreal, where, qualitatively speaking, magic tends to happen. However, that goaltending advantage that the Habs were supposed to have - the one we estimated would increase their win probability by around 12.5% - doesn’t appear to exist after all.
Is there a bet?
On the plus side, it’s not like Montembeault’s disappointed, so his strong play might be reliable going forward, but Thompson’s play suggests that we should hit delete on the spreadsheet cell that applies the Habs’ advantage in net. If we do, that drops the Canadiens’ projected win probability to 46.4%.
Before the series, we were hoping for anything with a “+” in front of it in order to back Montreal at home - something that’s widely available at the moment. However, if there’s no goaltending advantage, we’d need +136 to pull the trigger on the Habs.
In the end, if you’re buying that Montembeault can sustain the level he’s been playing at for weeks, and that Thompson’s bound to come back down to earth on the road, then Montreal is worth a bet in Game 3 at +100 or better.
As for the series, the best price available is +800 at FanDuel. That’s an implied win probability of 11.1%. At the best case assessment of 50/50 for each of the next two games, the Habs are 25% to even up the series. From there - assuming the goaltending matchup is going the way of Montreal, the Canadiens are 41% to win from there. 41% of 25% is 10.2%, so a bet at +800 provides a whopping 0.9% edge.
With too many assumptions needed to realize a tiny bit of value, taking the Habs in Game 3 is the better route.
Hurricanes (-2200) vs. Devils (+1100)
< 2-0 Hurricanes >
Game 3 (April 25)
Series preview keys
The Hurricanes will use their strong even-strength metrics, and better-than-usual conversion (SNIPES%) rates to beat the Devils.
The injury to Jack Hughes will compromise New Jersey’s modest even-strength metrics and power play.
Jacob Markstrom has struggled down the stretch, while Frederik Andersen has excelled, giving Carolina a distinct goaltending advantage.
Bet: Hurricanes -1.5 games (-115)
Even-strength metrics
As they often do, the Hurricanes have been getting after it at even strength. A total of 7.82 Expected Goals and 33 high-danger chances are more than just a product of home-ice advantage. But a funny thing happened in the first two games in Raleigh - the Devils have been creating offense too.
Even wilder, Markstrom’s been literally the best goaltender in the playoffs, averaging 1.96 GSAx/60, but New Jersey hasn’t done enough to steal either game in the series because Andersen’s been excellent too (1.66 GSAx/60).
Is there a bet?
We’ve been on the Hurricanes (-1.5 games) via the series spread, so there’s little to do with them up 2-0, with a prohibitive series price. Carolina’s quality of play isn’t leaving the door open for the Devils to make a comeback, even at as long as 11-to-1.
The market’s continued to be impressed with the Canes, so we’re not getting a sniff of the -130 target price we were hoping for in the games in New Jersey, as -165 is the consensus price.
What is interesting, is the total. Looking at the chart above, it’s clear that expected goals and high-danger chances are being created at 5-on-5, and those totals aren’t even accounting for power-play production. Meanwhile, the total for Game 3 is 5.5, with plus-money odds on the over. If both goaltenders come back to earth a little, a 3-2 game with a pulled goalie seems like a high-probability worst-case scenario, and a better than 50/50 chance we see a high-scoring game.
Game 3: Over 5.5 (+104 or better, for a half-unit)
Lightning (+475) vs. Panthers (-650)
< 2-0 Panthers >
Game 3 (April 26)
Series preview keys
The Lightning and Panthers are as even as can be.
Florida has a small edge in their skaters, while Andrei Vasilevskiy has been the slightly better goaltender this season.
With home-ice advantage, and less recent mileage due to Florida having made the Stanley Cup Finals the last two years, the Lightning should have an advantage in a pick’em series.
The best value bet relative to our numbers is Lightning +1.5 games at -190 (projected -200).
Bet: Lightning +1.5 games (-190)
Even-strength metrics
If we were doing a “blind resume” test, we’d be less annoyed about the first two games in the “Sunshine State Struggle.” Unfortunately, we had to watch the Lightning play.
Outlier result, thy name is Nate Schmidt.
Two goals in a 6-2 Game 1 win (that was more evenly played than the score suggests) was one thing, but even Schmidt, Florida’s journeyman defenseman, couldn’t seem to believe that he had scored a third goal - the lone mark in Thursday’s 1-0 win.
Schmidt’s Game 2 goal was not a high-danger chance - the type of opportunity that Florida had only two of all game at even-strength, while also being anemic on three power plays (including a near-5:00 major).
None of it mattered, though.
The Lightning went 0-for-15 on their SNIPES opportunities (power plays and even-strength high-danger chances). Tampa has too many good finishers for that to be anything more than a fluke, exemplified by Brayden Point missing a glorious chance early.
Not knowing the final score, we’d have assigned the Lightning a 66% chance of winning or odds of -200 given the underlying metrics, but the value on a -120 moneyline was not realized.
Is there a bet?
The Lightning lost Game 1 because Vasilevskiy was bad, and lost Game 2 because their finishers couldn’t, well, finish. Their two strengths, all of a sudden, weaknesses.
As discussed on Wednesday’s THE WINDOW Podcast, we bought the Lightning at a price that was 1% outside of our target because of the assumption of Tampa’s desperation to win the series. Their even-strength metrics actually suggest that was valid.
For Game 3, our moneyline target was +140 (41.5%), but as of this writing, their best available moneyline is +126 (44.2%), which means the “desperation tax” is now about 3% - a bridge too far for a game bet.
Where there may be some value in betting the Lightning to get back into the series is, again, in the games spread. FanDuel is offering Lightning +2.5 (essentially forcing a Game 6) at +124. It’s asking Tampa to at least get a split in Sunrise and then win Game 5 at home, something I expect they’ll do.
Maple Leafs (-3500) vs. Senators (+1600)
< 3-0 Maple Leafs >
Game 4 (April 26)
Series preview keys
There’s no value to betting a series whose odds fall directly within a reasonable range of our projections.
Neither team is particularly good at even-strength - where a higher percentage of the hockey is traditionally played in the playoffs.
Anthony Stolarz’ numbers down the stretch are impressive, but the goaltending matchup should be closer than those suggest.
Bet: Series to be tied 2-2 after four games (+150)
Even-strength metrics
For all the excitement over a potential series sweep and the inane fan quotes that local news is culling from the fake “Tailgate” party in Maple Leaf Square, the Sens Army should have an equal amount of negative energy about how this series has gone.
Ottawa is up 25-16 in even-strength high-danger chances, but down 2-1 in bank-shot goals off of legs, and 0-1 in seeing-eye wristers from journeymen defensemen in overtime.
The Senators only have themselves to blame. The penalties that lost them Game 1 felt like they come from a team acting how they thought they were supposed to in the postseason, while a Drake Batherson shift-from-hell in overtime of Game 2 was the antithesis of #PlayoffHockey, and a raucous crowd at home in Game 3 gave them energy to create chances but over-exuberance might have been why they couldn’t hit the net with a shot to save their playoff lives.
Leaving the door ajar isn’t a risk you want to take against a Maple Leafs’ team who is capable of taking advantage of the few chances they generate (3/16 on ES HDC), and it’s cost them.
Is there a bet?
Stolarz numbers keep going up, while Ullmark’s keep getting worse.
The Senators have played well enough to have accomplished our ask of “just win one of the first three,” but two overtime losses have burned that ticket.
Ottawa could go quietly into the good night on Saturday, but their skaters’ metrics are good enough to not be able to bet that assumption. Plus, at times annoyingly, hockey teams don’t have the same quit-level when down 0-3. However, our definition of value for the Senators at home was +110, and they’re still being favored slightly in Ottawa.
To be on the side of the maximum amount of comedy, DraftKings has the best price on a Senators’ comeback at 16-1 (5.9% implied win probability).
Since the probability of winning four straight coin-flips (which this series has largely been) is 6.25%, anything better than 15-1 is worth a couple bucks in support of total anarchy in a land where there are no tailgates to be found (other than on the sponsored towels). Otherwise, we’ll politely wait, hoping an “easy” series win creates a market valuation and a chance to fade Toronto in the second round.
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